Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply

The aviation sector faces a significant supply gap for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with current project announcements covering only 30–40% of the 10% global supply target for 2030. The report identifies four primary production pathways—HEFA, G-FT, AtJ, and PtL—and notes that while HEFA is most common, PtL offers the most long-term potential despite higher costs. Regionally, Europe relies on mandates like ReFuelEU, the US utilizes financial incentives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Middle East is positioned as a potential PtL hub due to cheap renewable energy. The report argues that scaling requires a combination of long-term offtake agreements, 'book and claim' systems to decouple environmental benefits from physical fuel flow, and coordinated public-private partnerships to de-risk investments.

• There is a substantial gap between current SAF project announcements and the 2030 target of a 10% global fuel supply share; currently announced projects cover only 30–40% of the required 40–50 Mt of SAF.
• SAF production is significantly more expensive than conventional fuel, currently costing two to five times more than fossil jet fuel.
• Four primary ASTM-approved production pathways are identified: hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which is the most common but limited by feedstock; biomass gasification (G-FT); alcohol-to-jet (AtJ); and power-to-liquid (PtL), which is the most expensive but not limited by biomass availability.
• Europe's strategy is characterized by a 'stick' approach using mandates and carbon pricing, notably the ReFuelEU legislation which mandates a 6% SAF blend by 2030 and up to 70% by 2050.
• The US employs a 'carrot' approach based on financial incentives, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which provides blender's tax credits of $1.25–$1.75 per gallon of SAF.
• The Middle East is well-positioned to become a global hub for power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels due to cheap renewable energy and established export networks, though it currently lacks comprehensive SAF regulation.
• To overcome transport costs and complexity, the report suggests 'book and claim' systems that decouple the environmental benefits of SAF from its physical flow.
• The report identifies 20 key global regions well-positioned for SAF production, noting that many ideal sites are in South America, southern Africa, Australia, and the Middle East, leading to the likely formation of 'international green SAF corridors'.
• Scaling SAF requires specific roles from various stakeholders: OEMs must ensure 100% SAF compatibility, airlines must commit to long-term offtake agreements, and airports can act as 'impartial matchmakers'.

APA

World Economic Forum (2024). Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scaling_Sustainable_Aviation_Fuel_Supply_2024.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply. 2024. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scaling_Sustainable_Aviation_Fuel_Supply_2024.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply |date=March 2024 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scaling_Sustainable_Aviation_Fuel_Supply_2024.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2024scaling, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2024}, month = mar, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scaling_Sustainable_Aviation_Fuel_Supply_2024.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }