White Paper The Future of Nuclear Security

The report argues that nuclear security is deteriorating due to the convergence of intensifying great power competition, the proliferation of dual-use technologies, and the potential for non-state actors to acquire nuclear materials. It highlights how these factors reduce decision-making timelines and increase the likelihood of miscalculation or accidental escalation.

• Nuclear security is threatened by the intersection of four non-independent drivers: geopolitics, technology, non-state actors, and evolving mindsets regarding nuclear risk and use.
• The speed and complexity of modern crises, driven by new military and commercial technologies, are reducing the time available for human response, potentially leading to an over-reliance on artificial intelligence and increasing the risk of accidental escalation or pre-emption.
• Climate change, environmental degradation, and resource pressures—specifically regarding water, food, and energy—are emerging as new catalysts for nuclear confrontation, particularly for states dependent on Himalayan glaciers like China, India, and Pakistan.
• Emerging technologies create asymmetric vulnerabilities; for example, the cost of defending against cyberattacks far exceeds the cost of executing them, and the democratization of these tools allows lone wolves or small groups to target secure nuclear systems.
• Non-state actors may seek nuclear or radiological materials based on two primary motivations: 'end of days' apocalyptic ideologies (e.g., Islamic State) to hasten a religious victory, or as a 'chaos catalyst' to provoke state reactions that destabilize a region for strategic gain.
• Current concepts of nuclear 'use' are expanding beyond the detonation of strategic weapons to include the use of nuclear arsenals for coercive geopolitical advantage or the employment of tactical nuclear weapons against hardened targets.

APA

World Economic Forum (2016). White Paper The Future of Nuclear Security. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Nuclear_Futures_Exercise_Report.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. White Paper The Future of Nuclear Security. 2016. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Nuclear_Futures_Exercise_Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=White Paper The Future of Nuclear Security |date=March 2016 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Nuclear_Futures_Exercise_Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2016white, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{White Paper The Future of Nuclear Security}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2016}, month = mar, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Nuclear_Futures_Exercise_Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }