Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030

The report examines how geopolitical rifts and regulatory shifts are redefining economic competitiveness, moving from a focus on cost-efficiency to strategic agility and resilience. It presents four scenarios for 2030: Fortress Economics, Negotiated Order, Survival of the Fastest, and Fluid Order, and assesses the exposure of 12 key industries to these futures. The analysis highlights the critical role of industrial policy, technology diffusion, and talent acquisition in maintaining a competitive edge amid increasing global fragmentation.

• Competitiveness has evolved from a primary focus on cost-efficiency to a broader set of capabilities, including the ability to innovate, attract investment, develop talent, diversify economic activity, and manage climate risks.
• Geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating, with approximately one-third of global employers expecting geopolitical division and conflict to be a primary driver of business transformation by 2030.
• There has been a significant rise in discriminatory trade and industrial policies since 2022, with nearly 80% of the 5,716 recorded policy measures being discriminatory.
• The report identifies four potential futures for 2030: 'Fortress Economics' (high volatility, high stringency), 'Negotiated Order' (low volatility, high stringency), 'Survival of the Fastest' (high volatility, low stringency), and 'Fluid Order' (low volatility, low stringency).
• Innovation remains highly concentrated, with over 80% of global R&D spending coming from only 10 economies, despite Asia's share of spending rising to nearly 50% from 25% in 2000.
• Industrial policy is increasingly viewed as essential for competitiveness, with nearly half of global executives stating it is necessary for countries to remain competitive in future industries.
• The manufacturing sector is highly exposed to geopolitical shifts, with over two-thirds of employers expecting geopolitical division, slower growth, and trade restrictions to drive transformation.
• The supply chain and transport sector faces significant costs from geopolitical volatility, exemplified by Red Sea tensions that added up to 10 days and nearly $1 million in fuel for one-way Asia-Europe journeys.
• The energy and materials sector is experiencing a surge in resource nationalism, with export restrictions on critical raw materials increasing more than fivefold between 2009 and 2023.
• Digital services are growing rapidly, with global spending on digital transformation expected to reach $4 trillion by 2027, though the sector faces rising data localization measures and compliance costs.

APA

World Economic Forum (2025). Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Economic_Futures_Competitiveness_in_2030_2025.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030. 2025. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Economic_Futures_Competitiveness_in_2030_2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 |date=June 2025 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Economic_Futures_Competitiveness_in_2030_2025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2025global, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2025}, month = jun, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Economic_Futures_Competitiveness_in_2030_2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }