Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: China

The report outlines a base-case scenario for China's consumption by 2027, driven by economic growth, demographic shifts, technological innovation, and evolving consumer attitudes. It predicts a transition to a consumption-driven model where the middle class expands to 65% of households and consumption grows by 6% annually to reach RMB 56 trillion. Key trends include the rise of the sharing economy, the digitalization of retail ('widgets to digits'), and the critical importance of consumer data. The report also identifies risks such as a 'middle-income trap' due to automation and a 'turning inward' scenario driven by protectionism. Societal challenges include a widening digital divide, environmental degradation from e-commerce packaging, and trust issues regarding data privacy and product quality.

• China is transitioning to a consumption- and services-driven development model. By 2027, consumption is projected to grow by an average of 6% annually, reaching RMB 56 trillion ($8.2 trillion), with the middle class estimated to represent 65% of households.
• Demographic shifts will create distinct consumption needs: by 2027, approximately 324 million people (22% of the population) will be over 60, increasing demand for senior care and health services. Simultaneously, 200 million people born in the 1990s and 150 million from Generation Z will enter the workforce, favoring premium, personalized products and instant gratification.
• Retail will undergo a 'widgets to digits' transformation, integrating online and offline channels. By 2027, most transactions are expected to be mobile payments and digitally traceable, with AI and IoT enabling seamless customer journeys and autonomous delivery via drones.
• Consumer data is described as the 'new oil,' with the report predicting that fewer than five companies may control most consumer data by 2027, creating a substantial competitive advantage for those who can refine and value this resource.
• A 'middle-income trap' scenario could occur if automation replaces up to 25% of manufacturing jobs by 2027 and a skills gap prevents workers from transitioning to service jobs, potentially reducing consumption expenditure by RMB 15 trillion compared to the base case.
• A 'turning inward' scenario, driven by protectionism and nationalism, could result in consumption expenditure being RMB 5.5 trillion lower than the base case, primarily impacting foreign brands.
• Technological advancement poses societal risks, including tensions between digitalization and privacy, a widening digital divide between urban and rural populations, and environmental challenges from e-commerce packaging waste.
• Consumer preferences remain split approximately 50/50 between Westernized and Chinese lifestyles, a division that influences spending behavior in categories like food, beverages, and recreation.

APA

World Economic Forum (2018). Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: China. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Consumption_in_Fast_Growth_Consumer_Markets_China.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: China. 2018. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Consumption_in_Fast_Growth_Consumer_Markets_China.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: China |date=January 2018 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Consumption_in_Fast_Growth_Consumer_Markets_China.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2018future, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: China}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2018}, month = jan, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Consumption_in_Fast_Growth_Consumer_Markets_China.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }