Global Agenda Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis

The World Economic Forum presents four potential scenarios for global food systems in 2030: 'Survival of the Richest', 'Unchecked Consumption', 'Open-source Sustainability', and 'Local Is the New Global'. These scenarios are built upon two critical uncertainties: whether consumer demand becomes more resource-intensive or resource-efficient, and whether markets remain highly connected or become fragmented. The report argues that current food systems are unfit for purpose and require a systemic transformation involving 'smart policies', private sector innovation, and a focus on social and ecological priorities to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

• The report identifies four distinct scenarios for 2030 based on the intersection of demand shifts and market connectivity: 'Survival of the Richest' (resource-intensive/disconnected), 'Unchecked Consumption' (resource-intensive/connected), 'Open-source Sustainability' (resource-efficient/connected), and 'Local Is the New Global' (resource-efficient/disconnected).
• Climate change is treated as a predictable force of change that will impact all future scenarios, potentially compromising the long-term productive capacity of food systems and threatening social and economic stability.
• The 'Unchecked Consumption' scenario describes a world of high GDP growth but severe environmental costs, where the 'foodprint' expands and key ecosystems like fisheries and drylands begin to collapse.
• The 'Open-source Sustainability' scenario envisions a future with high transparency and international cooperation, where food loss and waste are reduced to 5% of global production through market efficiencies and technology.
• In the 'Local Is the New Global' scenario, a shift toward self-sufficiency and local food movements reduces environmental strain but creates 'hunger hotspots' in import-dependent regions and mega cities like Lagos.
• The 'Survival of the Richest' scenario is characterized by a stark division between wealthy populations and the poor, driven by nationalist sentiment, isolationist policies, and a crisis mindset.
• Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies—including CRISPR, big data, AI, and robotics—could revolutionize food systems, but there is a risk they will exacerbate inequality if access and control are not managed.
• The report argues for a 'whole of government' approach to policy, suggesting that public subsidies should be redirected toward highly nutritious crops to lower their price point.
• Current global food systems are described as unfit for purpose, with nearly half of the world's population lacking a properly nutritious diet and the sector contributing significantly to greenhouse gases, deforestation, and water scarcity.

APA

World Economic Forum (2017). Global Agenda Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofGlobalFoodSystems.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Global Agenda Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis. 2017. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofGlobalFoodSystems.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Global Agenda Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis |date=January 2017 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofGlobalFoodSystems.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2017global, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Global Agenda Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2017}, month = jan, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofGlobalFoodSystems.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }