Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism

The report identifies four scenarios for travel and tourism by 2030: 'A thousand islands world' (fragmentation and stagnation), 'Harmonious horizons' (stability and growth), 'Green ascent' (rapid decarbonization), and 'Tech turbulence' (AI disruption). It analyzes how variables like geopolitical cooperation, economic growth, sustainability transitions, and technological adoption will reshape the industry, highlighting risks such as overtourism, cybersecurity threats, and workforce displacement.

• The 'A thousand islands world' scenario is defined by high geopolitical fragmentation and economic stagnation, leading to a 45% reduction in cross-border tourism investment by 2030 and a shift toward regional travel blocs like ASEAN and AfCFTA.
• The 'Harmonious horizons' scenario envisions a period of multilateral cooperation and strong economic growth (averaging 3.8% annually), resulting in a 29% surge in international tourist arrivals by 2030, though it risks severe overtourism at UNESCO sites.
• The 'Green ascent' scenario focuses on rapid decarbonization and regenerative tourism, where sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) adoption reaches 28% of global consumption by 2030 and 'high-value, low-volume' models are adopted by 45 small-island developing states.
• The 'Tech turbulence' scenario is characterized by hyper-accelerated AI adoption (78% penetration by 2030) and a widening digital divide, with automation potentially transforming 25% to 45% of tourism jobs.
• Geopolitical instability has immediate and severe impacts on tourism; for example, Israel saw an 81.5% decline in tourist arrivals in Q4 2023 following the Gaza conflict, and Ukraine experienced a 29% drop in tourism tax revenues in Q1 2023.
• The sector faces significant financial and infrastructural risks, including a $100 billion to $200 billion annual infrastructure gap in emerging markets through 2040 and $1.2 trillion in flood risks for coastal resorts by 2035.
• Technological disruption introduces critical security and reputational risks, with potential annual losses from data breaches reaching $450 billion by 2030 and AI-generated fake reviews affecting 34% of top destinations by 2027.

APA

World Economic Forum (2025). Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Scenarios_for_the_Future_of_Travel_and_Tourism_2025.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism. 2025. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Scenarios_for_the_Future_of_Travel_and_Tourism_2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism |date=July 2025 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Scenarios_for_the_Future_of_Travel_and_Tourism_2025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2025four, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2025}, month = jul, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Four_Scenarios_for_the_Future_of_Travel_and_Tourism_2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }