Forests, Food Systems and Livelihoods: Trends, Forecasts and Solutions to Reframe Approaches to Protecting Forests

The report analyzes how the expansion of the global middle class, particularly in Asia, has driven a 48% increase in agricultural consumption between 2001 and 2018, shifting production toward tropical regions. It finds that over 80% of tropical deforestation is linked to agriculture, with cattle pasture being a primary driver. While some commodities like palm oil show declining deforestation rates, the report warns that climate change and shrinking labor forces threaten future production. It argues for a systemic 'food systems approach' that prioritizes rural livelihoods, financial incentives for farmers, and tailored regional policies over isolated corporate supply-chain actions.

• Global demand for food and agricultural products grew by approximately 48% between 2001 and 2018, a rate more than twice that of human population growth. This increase was primarily driven by Asia, which accounted for 60% of the total growth in demand, largely due to the expansion of the global middle class.
• Agricultural production has shifted significantly toward the tropics, which now represent 50% of global agricultural output, up from 44% in 2001. Tropical regions accounted for 63% of the rise in global agricultural production volume during this period.
• Agriculture is the primary driver of tropical forest loss, with over 80% of tropical deforestation occurring in landscapes where agriculture is the dominant driver. Since 2002, more than 60 million hectares of primary forest have been lost in the tropics.
• Conversion to pasture is a major contributor to agricultural tree cover loss, accounting for 40% of such loss between 2001 and 2010 and 29% between 2011 and 2015. In Brazil, cattle production is responsible for up to 80% of all emissions from land-use change.
• Deforestation linked to palm oil has declined sharply since 2013, with preliminary data for 2016–2018 showing an 80% decrease. Indonesia specifically saw four consecutive years of primary forest loss reductions from 2017 to 2020.
• Soy production in the tropics has expanded rapidly, with Brazil's production increasing by 211% between 2001 and 2018. While the Amazon Soy Moratorium reduced direct deforestation in the Amazon, soy expansion in the Cerrado and Gran Chaco continues, and soy often indirectly drives deforestation by displacing cattle pasture into forests.
• Cocoa and coffee production face unique challenges; cocoa yields in West Africa have declined, leading to demand being met through land expansion, with 66% of the increase in harvested area associated with deforestation.
• Future agricultural production in the tropics is threatened by a shrinking labor force, which could decrease by 20 million people by 2030, and by climate change, which the IPCC projects will make the tropics and subtropics most vulnerable to crop yield decline.
• Current yield improvements are insufficient to prevent further land expansion. To avoid land expansion by 2030, annual yield growth for palm oil would need to improve by 2.6 percentage points and cocoa by 3.4 percentage points.
• The report argues that isolated private-sector supply-chain actions are insufficient. Effective solutions require a 'food systems approach' that integrates rural livelihood improvement, financial incentives for conservation, and tailored regional policies.

APA

World Economic Forum (2021). Forests, Food Systems and Livelihoods: Trends, Forecasts and Solutions to Reframe Approaches to Protecting Forests. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_Food_Systems_and_Livelihoods_2021.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Forests, Food Systems and Livelihoods: Trends, Forecasts and Solutions to Reframe Approaches to Protecting Forests. 2021. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_Food_Systems_and_Livelihoods_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Forests, Food Systems and Livelihoods: Trends, Forecasts and Solutions to Reframe Approaches to Protecting Forests |date=September 2021 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_Food_Systems_and_Livelihoods_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2021forests, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Forests, Food Systems and Livelihoods: Trends, Forecasts and Solutions to Reframe Approaches to Protecting Forests}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2021}, month = sep, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_Food_Systems_and_Livelihoods_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }