Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe

The report argues that SAF production in Europe can feasibly reach 10% of total jet fuel consumption by 2030, provided there is strong policy support and significant public investment. It recommends a volumetric blending mandate levied on fuel suppliers, combined with sub-targets for novel technological pathways and financial mechanisms to bridge the cost gap for airlines and prevent competitive distortions.

• SAF production in Europe can feasibly increase to 10% of total jet fuel consumption by 2030, which equates to approximately 6.5 to 7 million tonnes per year. This target is achievable if a strong long-term policy framework is introduced promptly, novel technological pathways reach commercial scale, and biomass production is optimized for aviation.
• To achieve the 2030 target, Europe would need a combination of feedstocks: nearly 5% from domestic waste and residue lipids via the HEFA route, 2.3% from cover crops or marginal/degraded lands, 2% from lignocellulosic biomass and biowaste (via G+FT and AtJ), and 1% from power-to-liquid (PtL) synfuels.
• Significant public financial support is required to de-risk the SAF supply chain. Total public investment support for new plants could reach €120 billion over 15 years, with approximately €110 billion specifically for the commercialization of power-to-liquid and lignocellulosic pathways due to their lower technology readiness levels.
• The report recommends a volumetric blending mandate rather than a greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity reduction target because volumetric targets provide a clearer demand signal for new technologies and allow for the implementation of sub-targets for specific pathways.
• To minimize administrative burdens and avoid legal conflicts with non-EEA airlines, the blending mandate should be levied directly on fuel suppliers in Europe rather than on airlines.
• The introduction of a regional mandate risks competitive distortions, particularly for intercontinental and feeder flights, which represent about 10% of total traffic. Revenue losses would primarily affect major hub airports and airlines operating intercontinental routes.
• To mitigate competitive distortions and carbon leakage, the report suggests several options: using public support to bridge the SAF-kerosene cost gap, modulating existing aviation taxes based on SAF use, and pursuing a global mandate through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
• Aviation should be prioritized for the allocation of scarce sustainable bioresources over the power and road transport sectors because aviation lacks cost-effective alternative decarbonization options, whereas road transport can transition to battery electric vehicles.
• The report proposes a specific blending trajectory for Europe: 2-5% by 2025, 10% by 2030, 25% by 2035, and 50% by 2040.

APA

World Economic Forum (2021). Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_CST_EU_Policy_2021.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe. 2021. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_CST_EU_Policy_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe |date=July 2021 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_CST_EU_Policy_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2021guidelines, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_CST_EU_Policy_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }