Chief Economists’ Outlook

The global economy is experiencing a period of profound transformation characterized by geoeconomic fragmentation, particularly driven by US trade policy, and the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence. While some regions like the Middle East and North Africa show robust growth, others face subdued prospects or deflationary risks. The report highlights a growing divergence between advanced economies, which rely on technology and human capital, and developing economies, which depend more on capital and natural resources. Systemic risks are identified in public debt, the weakening of global economic institutions, and the economic costs of extreme weather events.

• A significant majority of chief economists are pessimistic about the near-term global economy, with 72% expecting conditions to weaken in the coming year.
• Geoeconomic fragmentation is accelerating, primarily due to US trade policies including sweeping tariffs and new export taxes on domestic chipmakers, leading to a realignment of supply chains.
• Artificial intelligence is expected to be commercially disruptive within a year, though its impact on productivity and labour markets remains a point of division among economists.
• Regional economic outlooks vary widely: the Middle East and North Africa have the strongest growth prospects, while the US outlook remains subdued with elevated inflation risks.
• Global trade is facing its most significant disruption in decades, with 70% of surveyed economists rating the level of disturbance as 'very high'.
• Public debt has reached critical levels, exceeding $100 trillion in 2024, with debt sustainability becoming a growing concern for advanced economies.
• There is a structural divergence in growth inputs: advanced economies depend primarily on technology and know-how (87%) and skills (82%), whereas developing economies rely most on capital (93%) and natural resources (82%).
• The reduction of development aid from advanced economies is expected to increase global health risks (85%), migration flows (77%), and security (75%) and climate risks (69%).
• Environmental risks are viewed as systemic and underestimated, with extreme weather causing annual GDP losses of over 0.3% between 2006 and 2018.

APA

World Economic Forum (2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2025.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists’ Outlook. 2025. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists’ Outlook |date=September 2025 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2025chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists’ Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_September_2025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }