Chief Economists Outlook

The May 2023 Chief Economists Outlook highlights a polarized global economic outlook, with significant uncertainty regarding a 2023 recession. While Asia is expected to see buoyant activity driven by China's reopening, Europe faces weak growth and high inflation. The report notes that recent banking disruptions have created a trade-off for central banks between fighting inflation and maintaining financial stability. Furthermore, it identifies a global resurgence of assertive industrial policy and a restructuring of supply chains driven by geopolitical tensions and a prioritization of resilience over efficiency.

• There is a lack of consensus among chief economists regarding a global recession in 2023, with 45% viewing it as likely and 45% viewing it as unlikely.
• Regional growth expectations for 2023 are highly divergent: Asia is expected to be the most buoyant due to China's reopening, while 75% of economists expect weak or very weak growth in Europe.
• Inflation remains a critical issue, with approximately 80% of surveyed economists expecting the cost of living to remain at crisis levels in many countries throughout 2023, despite some reductions in headline rates.
• Recent banking instability has forced central banks into a trade-off between managing inflation and ensuring financial sector stability, with 82% of respondents expecting the pace of interest-rate hikes to slow as a result.
• Higher interest rates are expected to cause significant disruption in property markets (67% of respondents) and financial businesses (50% of respondents) during 2023-2024.
• Assertive industrial policy is becoming more widespread, with nearly 75% of economists expecting this trend over the next three years; however, 91% warn it will deepen geoeconomic tensions and 70% believe it will stifle competition.
• Global supply chains are being reshaped by geopolitical faultlines (94%), a prioritization of resilience over efficiency (91%), and supplier diversification (84%), with China expected to be the most negatively impacted geography.

APA

World Economic Forum (2023). Chief Economists Outlook. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May2023.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2023. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May2023.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=May 2023 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May2023.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2023chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_May2023.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }