Chief Economists Outlook

The document analyzes the uneven global economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the risks of bankruptcies and labor market scarring. It evaluates the fiscal responses of the US, EU, and China, while advocating for a uniform carbon price and increased international support for low- and middle-income countries to ensure a green and inclusive transition.

• Chief economists expect an average global growth rate between 5.5% and 6% in 2021, with global GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels by the first half of 2022.
• Fiscal stimulus packages in the US, EU, and China are judged to have moderate transformative power, though the EU's plan is slightly ahead. The US package is viewed as disproportionately large, totaling nearly 25% of GDP, whereas China's was 4.7% and the EU's approximately 10% of EU27 GDP.
• The greatest risk of economic scarring is identified as a potential wave of bankruptcies resulting from the phase-out of emergency measures, followed by labor market scarring. Permanent damage to global production networks is considered the lowest risk.
• Labor market recovery is uneven, particularly affecting women in the US, where nearly 3 million women left the workforce due to burnout and lack of childcare, leaving the participation rate 2.8 percentage points below November 2019 levels.
• There is a significant risk of increased social unrest globally due to deepening labor market polarization, accelerated automation, and the challenges of the climate transition, which may disproportionately affect regions with low living standards.
• A uniform carbon price is identified as the most effective instrument for achieving carbon neutrality, providing a coordination signal for investment and revenue to support vulnerable households and regions.
• International divergence is increasing between wealthy nations and low- and middle-income countries; experts suggest that grants rather than loans are necessary to support vaccine rollouts and the green transition.

APA

World Economic Forum (2021). Chief Economists Outlook. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_June_2021.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2021. http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_June_2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=June 2021 |url=http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_June_2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2021chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_June_2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }