Chief Economists’ Outlook

The January 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook reveals a cautiously improving but still predominantly negative global economic sentiment, with 53% of economists expecting conditions to weaken. Key risks include inflated asset valuations—particularly in US AI-related stocks—and rising public debt, which reached $102 trillion in 2024. Geoeconomic shifts are characterized by a trade truce between the US and China, though technology export restrictions and critical mineral controls persist. AI is identified as a primary driver of potential productivity gains, though the pace of adoption varies significantly by region and firm size, with the US and China leading and Sub-Saharan Africa lagging. Employment outlooks are polarized, with a majority expecting job losses over the next decade, despite short-term modest disruptions.

• Global economic sentiment is tilting toward the negative for 2026, although it has improved from September 2025; 53% of chief economists expect conditions to weaken, compared to 72% in the previous outlook.
• There are significant concerns regarding asset bubbles, specifically the 'magnificent seven' US tech firms whose market capitalization share grew to nearly 35% from about 20% in November 2022.
• Global public debt reached a record $102 trillion in 2024 and is projected to increase by approximately 100% of GDP by 2029.
• Government spending priorities are shifting toward defence, digital infrastructure, and energy, while spending on environmental protection is expected to decline in both advanced and emerging economies.
• The US and China have entered a trade truce as of November 1, 2025, maintaining a 10% reciprocal US tariff on Chinese imports while suspending planned increases and retaliatory controls on rare earths.
• AI adoption is creating a productivity divide: the US and China are expected to see meaningful gains within 1-2 years, while Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to take 5 years or longer.
• AI is expected to cause significant labor market disruption over the long term, with 57% of respondents expecting job losses over the next 10 years.
• Regional growth outlooks vary, with South Asia appearing as the brightest spot (66% expecting strong or very strong growth), while Europe is expected to have the weakest outlook (53% expecting weak growth).

APA

World Economic Forum (2026). Chief Economists’ Outlook. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2026.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists’ Outlook. 2026. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2026.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists’ Outlook |date=January 2026 |url=https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2026.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2026chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists’ Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2026}, month = jan, url = {https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_January_2026.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }