Chief Economists Outlook

The September 2022 Chief Economists Outlook reports a darkening global economic forecast characterized by persistent inflation, rising recession risks, and deteriorating debt dynamics. It highlights a severe cost-of-living crisis with falling real wages and threats to food and energy security, particularly in low-income countries. The document also analyzes the deepening fragmentation of global trade and supply chains driven by geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, and the resulting shift toward supply chain localization and diversification.

• Global economic growth expectations have declined, with nearly 75% of surveyed chief economists considering a global recession to be at least 'somewhat likely'. Europe and China are identified as particular weak points, with almost 90% of respondents expecting weak or very weak growth in Europe due to the war in Ukraine, inflation, and energy supply threats.
• High inflation has led to synchronized monetary tightening, which is expected to reduce inflationary pressures in 2023 but may cause a sharper decline in growth and financial strain for lower-income countries. While 80% of respondents view higher interest rates as effective, 85% believe supply-side measures—such as easing supply chain disruptions—are the most effective way to tackle inflation.
• A global cost-of-living crisis is eroding purchasing power, with 90% of respondents expecting real wages to decline in low-income economies and 80% expecting the same in high-income economies. This is compounded by food and energy insecurity; 81% of respondents expect food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa over the next three years.
• Sovereign debt risks are increasing, particularly in low-income countries, with over 90% of respondents agreeing that the risk of default has risen. The IMF reports that 60% of low-income economies are currently in or at high risk of debt distress, a significant increase from 20% a decade ago.
• Geopolitical turbulence is increasingly shaping the global economy, with 90% of respondents expecting heightened geopolitical risk to significantly impact global economic activity over the next three years. This has led to 'weaponized interdependence' and a trend toward 'friendshoring' to protect critical supply chains.
• Global economic integration is fragmenting, with the strongest consensus on the fragmentation of technology (80%) and goods (70%). Consequently, 80% of respondents expect businesses to pursue strategies of supply chain localization and diversification over the next three years.

APA

World Economic Forum (2022). Chief Economists Outlook. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_2022.pdf

Chicago

World Economic Forum. Chief Economists Outlook. 2022. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_2022.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Economic Forum |title=Chief Economists Outlook |date=September 2022 |url=https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_2022.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldeconomicforum2022chief, author = {{World Economic Forum}}, title = {{Chief Economists Outlook}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Chief_Economists_Outlook_2022.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }