The chilling effects of global warming on migration

The research finds that rising temperatures have asymmetric effects on migration based on a country's income level. In middle-income countries, higher temperatures accelerate rural-to-urban migration and urbanization. Conversely, in poor countries, higher temperatures reduce out-migration from rural areas, potentially trapping populations in poverty because they lack the financial means to afford the costs of moving.

• Rural-to-urban migration is most intense in lower-middle-income countries, while it is flattest in rich countries and less pronounced in poor countries where urbanization has not fully commenced.
• In poor countries, higher temperatures are associated with higher net migration rates in rural areas, meaning that rising temperatures actually reduce the rate of out-migration. Specifically, a 1° Celsius increase in annual average temperatures is estimated to decrease net out-migration rates by approximately 5 percentage points in these rural areas.
• In upper-middle income countries, higher temperatures lead to lower net migration rates in rural areas, indicating that rising temperatures increase out-migration. A 1° Celsius rise in temperatures is associated with a 1.5 percentage point increase in net out-migration rates in these rural regions.
• The difference in migration responses is explained by a feasibility condition: while temperature shocks reduce agricultural income and increase the incentive to move, people in poor countries may become too poor to afford the costs of migration, whereas those in middle-income countries can still afford to move.

APA

Sasahara, G. P. A. (2019). The chilling effects of global warming on migration. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/the-chilling-effects-of-global-warming-on-migration/

Chicago

Sasahara, Giovanni Peri, Akira. The chilling effects of global warming on migration. World Economic Forum, 2019. https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/the-chilling-effects-of-global-warming-on-migration/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sasahara |first1=Giovanni Peri, Akira |title=The chilling effects of global warming on migration |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=15 July 2019 |url=https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/the-chilling-effects-of-global-warming-on-migration/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sasahara2019chilling, author = {Sasahara, Giovanni Peri, Akira}, title = {{The chilling effects of global warming on migration}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2019}, month = jul, url = {https://www.weforum.org/stories/climate-action/the-chilling-effects-of-global-warming-on-migration/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }