The state of global food security - and what could come next year

The global food system is at high risk due to a confluence of the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, and climate-driven events. The conflict has severely restricted grain exports from the Black Sea region, with Ukrainian crop production estimated to decline by 35 to 45 percent in the next harvesting season. This, combined with trade restrictions and high fertilizer prices, could lead to a global traded grain deficit of 23 million to 40 million metric tons in 2023, potentially impacting the nutritional intake of up to 250 million people. Vulnerable countries in Africa and Asia are most at risk due to high import reliance and low purchasing power. The document argues that the current risk level may surpass those of the 2007–08 and 2010–11 crises, necessitating swift mitigations such as unblocking Black Sea routes, reducing trade restrictions, and providing financial aid.

• The conflict in Ukraine and the blockade of Black Sea ports have significantly reduced global grain exports. Sea logistic constraints alone are estimated to have lowered export volumes by 16 million to 19 million metric tons from Ukraine and 2 million to 3 million metric tons from Russia.
• Ukrainian crop production is projected to drop by 35 to 45 percent in the next harvesting season. This decline is attributed to military actions, land mines, lack of farmer liquidity, reduced access to fertilizers, and increased costs for diesel and fertilizer.
• Global traded grain could face a deficit of 23 million to 40 million metric tons in 2023 under a worst-case scenario where Ukrainian ports remain obstructed and agricultural inputs are limited. This deficit represents the annual nutritional intake for up to 250 million people, or 3 percent of the global population.
• Climate change is actively limiting global food supplies, exemplified by heat waves in India and a dry summer in Western Europe, which together could reduce world grain supply by over 10 million tons.
• Trade restrictions have exacerbated the crisis, with approximately 40 new export bans and licensing requirements introduced between the start of the war and May 2022 to protect domestic markets.
• Vulnerability to the food crisis is unevenly distributed; while the US, China, and the EU are relatively protected, countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen are highly exposed due to heavy import reliance and low purchasing power.
• The current global food system risk may be higher than during the 2007–08 and 2010–11 crises because the COVID-19 pandemic depleted national budgets and currency reserves, leaving governments less able to cushion price shocks.

APA

Verlan, D. A. A. B. N. D. S. D. N. F. O. K. J. R. I. (2022). The state of global food security - and what could come next year. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/food-water-air/global-food-security-challenges-and-predictions/

Chicago

Verlan, Daniel Aminetzah, Artem Baroyan, Nicolas Denis, Sarah Dewilde, Nelson Ferreira, Oleksandr Kravchenko, Julien Revellat, Ivan. The state of global food security - and what could come next year. World Economic Forum, 2022. https://www.weforum.org/stories/food-water-air/global-food-security-challenges-and-predictions/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Verlan |first1=Daniel Aminetzah, Artem Baroyan, Nicolas Denis, Sarah Dewilde, Nelson Ferreira, Oleksandr Kravchenko, Julien Revellat, Ivan |title=The state of global food security - and what could come next year |publisher=World Economic Forum |date=30 August 2022 |url=https://www.weforum.org/stories/food-water-air/global-food-security-challenges-and-predictions/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{verlan2022state, author = {Verlan, Daniel Aminetzah, Artem Baroyan, Nicolas Denis, Sarah Dewilde, Nelson Ferreira, Oleksandr Kravchenko, Julien Revellat, Ivan}, title = {{The state of global food security - and what could come next year}}, institution = {World Economic Forum}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://www.weforum.org/stories/food-water-air/global-food-security-challenges-and-predictions/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }