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The Great Plains region has experienced increasing average temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, with winter temperatures in northern states rising by more than 6°F over the last 30 years. Climate change is projected to exacerbate the depletion of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer, particularly in the southern region where unsustainable water use and extreme heat are already prevalent. Agriculture and livestock are highly vulnerable; rising temperatures are expected to shift crop zones, increase pest prevalence, and reduce livestock yields, with a projected 10% decline in cow/calf and dairy operations under higher emissions scenarios. Ecosystems, specifically prairie potholes and playa lakes, face threats from altered evaporation and recharge rates, which impacts migratory birds and aquifer replenishment. The document also highlights the vulnerability of 65 Native American tribes on rural lands facing water quantity and quality issues.

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  • The Great Plains has seen a rise in average temperatures, most notably in the northern states where winter temperatures increased by over 6 degrees Fahrenheit during the last 30 years.
  • Water resources in the region are unsustainable, as the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer is being depleted faster than it can recharge, with an average daily pump rate of 19 billion gallons.
  • Since 1950, aquifer water levels have dropped by an average of 13 feet (a 9% decrease in storage), with much steeper declines of 100 to over 250 feet in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
  • Climate change is expected to negatively impact livestock production; under higher emissions scenarios (warming of 9 to 11ºF), cow/calf and dairy operations in the southern Plains, Southeast, and Appalachia could see a 10% yield decline.
  • Agricultural productivity is threatened by shifting optimal crop zones, the northward spread of pests, and heat stress; for example, crops like tomatoes can suffer reduced yield or quality if daytime maximums exceed 90°F during critical reproductive stages.
  • Prairie potholes and playa lakes, which are critical for migratory birds and aquifer recharge, are threatened by climate-driven changes in evaporation and runoff, as well as human activities like urban sprawl and agricultural drainage.
  • Native American populations in the region, comprising 65 tribes, are particularly vulnerable due to limited resources and existing problems with water quality and quantity.

Cite the original document

APA
Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). Microsoft Word - greatplains.doc. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-greatplains.pdf
Chicago
Union of Concerned Scientists. Microsoft Word - greatplains.doc. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-greatplains.pdf.
Wikipedia
{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Microsoft Word - greatplains.doc |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-greatplains.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
BibTeX
@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndmicrosoft, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Microsoft Word - greatplains.doc}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/us-global-climate-change-report-greatplains.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }

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