Stormy Seas, Rising Risks

The report examines the vulnerability of U.S. coastal oil refineries to sea level rise and storm surge, focusing on five major companies: Valero, Phillips 66, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, and Chevron. It argues that these companies fail to adequately disclose material physical climate risks to the SEC, despite guidance issued in 2010. The analysis uses SLOSH MOM modeling to demonstrate that current and future sea level rise increases the likelihood of facility inundation and operational disruptions. The report highlights the resulting financial risks for investors and the environmental and health risks for neighboring communities, particularly those in the Gulf Coast region.

• Many U.S. oil refineries are highly vulnerable to climate impacts because they are located on low-lying land, with 120 oil and gas facilities situated within 10 feet of the local high tide line.
• The Gulf Coast is particularly susceptible to sea level rise, with some areas experiencing rates more than three times the global average due to land subsidence.
• Climate change is increasing the proportion of intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin, and rising sea levels allow storm surges to penetrate further inland.
• Five of the largest U.S. refining companiesValero, Phillips 66, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, and Chevronhave provided little to no disclosure of physical climate risks in their SEC Form 10-K filings, despite 2010 SEC guidance.
• Valero's Meraux, LA refinery is projected to become vulnerable to Category 2 hurricanes by 2050 due to sea level rise, whereas such storms are not currently projected to flood the facility.
• Phillips 66's Bayway refinery in Linden, NJ, is vulnerable to inundation from Category 1 hurricanes under current sea level conditions and could face depths of 10 feet of water in a Category 3 storm.
• Exxon Mobil's Baytown, TX refinery, the largest petroleum and petrochemical complex in the U.S., faces potential inundation and water depths of 15 feet from a Category 3 hurricane.
• Marathon Petroleum's Texas City refinery and surrounding facilities are at risk of inundation from Category 3 storms or higher, and the proximity of these refineries means damage at one could affect others.
• Chevron's Pascagoula, MS refinery is vulnerable to penetration by Category 1 hurricanes and could experience water depths of 10 feet during a Category 3 storm.
• Refinery failures caused by climate events have significant economic and community impacts, such as Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shutting down 23 percent of U.S. refining capacity in 2005 and causing a 50 percent jump in gasoline spot prices.
• Communities near refineries, which are disproportionately poor, African American, or Latino, face spillover risks from climate-induced facility damage, as seen when the Meraux refinery spilled 25,000 barrels of oil after Hurricane Katrina.

APA

Carlson, C., Goldman, G., & Dahl, K. (2015). Stormy Seas, Rising Risks. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-rising-risks-ucs-2015.pdf

Chicago

Carlson, Christina, Gretchen Goldman, and Kristina Dahl. Stormy Seas, Rising Risks. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-rising-risks-ucs-2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carlson |first1=Christina |last2=Goldman |first2=Gretchen |last3=Dahl |first3=Kristina |title=Stormy Seas, Rising Risks |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=February 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-rising-risks-ucs-2015.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carlson2015stormy, author = {Carlson, Christina and Goldman, Gretchen and Dahl, Kristina}, title = {{Stormy Seas, Rising Risks}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = feb, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/02/stormy-seas-rising-risks-ucs-2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }