Climate Change in the Midwest

The report projects substantial warming and shifting precipitation patterns for the US Midwest, with extreme heat events and heavy rainfall becoming more frequent. Under a higher emissions scenario, end-of-century temperatures could rise by up to 10°F, significantly increasing the frequency of severe heat waves and reducing snow cover. While annual precipitation may only increase slightly, winter and spring are expected to become wetter, while summer precipitation may decrease under higher emissions. These changes are projected to increase heat-related mortality and flooding risks across the region.

• The Midwest has already experienced warming since 1970 at a rate exceeding 0.4°F per decade, with winter temperatures rising faster at 0.9°F per decade between 1970 and 2000.
• Annual temperatures in the Midwest are projected to increase by 4.9 to 5.1°F under lower emissions and 9.7 to 10.3°F under higher emissions by the end of the century.
• Extreme heat is projected to increase significantly; by the end of the century, the number of days over 100°F in nine urban centers is expected to increase 4-8 times under lower emissions and 15-30 times under higher emissions.
• There is a high probability of severe heat waves; by 2040, there is a greater than 50% chance that nine major Midwest urban centers will experience at least one heat wave similar to the 1995 Chicago event, which caused nearly 700 deaths.
• An analysis of a 2003 European Heat Wave (EHW) analog suggests that if such an event occurred today, it would cause 1,073 deaths in Chicago, 282 in Indianapolis, and 141 in Minneapolis.
• Precipitation patterns are expected to shift seasonally; winter and spring precipitation are projected to increase by 20% under lower emissions and 30% under higher emissions by the end of the century.
• The region will see a significant reduction in snow; annual snow days are projected to decrease by 30-50% under lower emissions and 45-60% under higher emissions by the end of the century.
• The frequency of heavy rainfall events (more than 2 inches of rain per day) is projected to increase by 1.5 to 3 times the 1961-1990 average values.

APA

Hayhoe, K., VanDorn, J., Naik, V., & Wuebbles, D. (n.d.). Climate Change in the Midwest. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/midwest-climate-impacts.pdf

Chicago

Hayhoe, Katharine, Jeff VanDorn, Vaishali Naik, and Donald Wuebbles. Climate Change in the Midwest. Union of Concerned Scientists, n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/midwest-climate-impacts.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{hayhoendclimate, author = {Hayhoe, Katharine and VanDorn, Jeff and Naik, Vaishali and Wuebbles, Donald}, title = {{Climate Change in the Midwest}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/midwest-climate-impacts.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }