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The document examines 60 years of summer weather data in the US Midwest, finding that hot and humid air masses are becoming more frequent while cooler air masses are declining. Analysis of both large cities and smaller rural counterparts suggests these trends are driven by broader climate change rather than solely by urban heat island effects, with nighttime temperatures warming faster than daytime temperatures.

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  • Analysis of summer air mass frequencies indicates that the hottest and most humid air masses are increasing in frequency in both large and small cities, while cooler summer air masses are becoming less common, aligning with a general warming trend in the Midwest.
  • Nighttime warming is more pronounced than daytime warming, as evidenced by stronger warming and moisture trends in 3:00 a.m. air temperatures and dew points compared to 3:00 p.m. measurements.
  • The warming trends observed in the Midwest are likely due to larger climate changes rather than just urban heat island effects, because similar warming trends were found in both large urban centers and smaller, more rural paired cities.
  • The study identified specific air masses most critical to human health: dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical+ (MT+), which are associated with higher risks of heat-related deaths.
  • In some locations, such as Peoria, IL, there is a statistically significant increase in the frequency of moist tropical+ days, whereas in Chicago, IL, the increase is consistent over time but not statistically significant.

Cite the original document

APA
Perera, E. M., Sanford, T., White-Newsome, J. L., Kalkstein, L. S., Vanos, J. K., & Weir, K. (2012). Climate Change and Your Health. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Heat-in-the-Heartland-Technical-Appendix.pdf
Chicago
Perera, Elizabeth Martin, Todd Sanford, Jalonne L. White-Newsome, Laurence S. Kalkstein, Jennifer K. Vanos, and Kirsten Weir. Climate Change and Your Health. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2012. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Heat-in-the-Heartland-Technical-Appendix.pdf.
Wikipedia
{{cite report |last1=Perera |first1=Elizabeth Martin |last2=Sanford |first2=Todd |last3=White-Newsome |first3=Jalonne L. |last4=Kalkstein |first4=Laurence S. |last5=Vanos |first5=Jennifer K. |last6=Weir |first6=Kirsten |title=Climate Change and Your Health |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=July 2012 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Heat-in-the-Heartland-Technical-Appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}
BibTeX
@techreport{perera2012climate, author = {Perera, Elizabeth Martin and Sanford, Todd and White-Newsome, Jalonne L. and Kalkstein, Laurence S. and Vanos, Jennifer K. and Weir, Kirsten}, title = {{Climate Change and Your Health}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2012}, month = jul, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Heat-in-the-Heartland-Technical-Appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }

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