Economic Impacts of AB 32 Summary of Recent Analyses

The document compiles several reports indicating that AB 32's economic impact on small businesses is manageable, green jobs are outperforming the general economy, and diversifying the energy portfolio could increase Gross State Product and employment. It contrasts these findings with a study by Varshney and Tootelian, which it characterizes as unsound and unreliable for ignoring cost savings. Additionally, it warns that inaction on climate change could risk trillions of dollars in California assets.

• The economic impact of AB 32 on California small businesses is expected to be small, with energy-related costs as a percentage of revenue projected to increase from 1.4 percent to 1.7 percent by 2020.
• Between 1995 and 2008, California's green businesses grew by 45 percent in number and 36 percent in employment, significantly outpacing the overall state job expansion of 13 percent.
• Specific green job sectors saw substantial growth from 1995 to 2008, including a 152 percent increase in Green Transportation and a 63 percent increase in both Energy Generation and Energy Efficiency employment.
• Failure to diversify California's energy portfolio could lead to private electricity costs increasing by up to 33 percent and a loss of over $80 billion in Gross State Product and 500,000 jobs by 2020.
• Implementing a target of 33 percent renewable energy and a 1 percent annual improvement in energy efficiency is projected to increase Gross State Product by $20 billion and create 112,000 jobs.
• Macroeconomic modeling from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), University of California, and EPRI/CRA generally agrees that climate solutions are affordable and compatible with robust economic growth.
• A study by Varshney and Tootelian predicting severe losses from AB 32 is criticized as unreliable because it counts only costs while ignoring savings from energy efficiency and conservation.
• Inaction regarding climate change could expose $2.5 trillion of California's $4 trillion in real estate assets to risk from wildfires, sea level rise, and extreme weather.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (n.d.). Economic Impacts of AB 32 Summary of Recent Analyses. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/02/economic-impacts-of-ab-32%255B1%255D.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Economic Impacts of AB 32 Summary of Recent Analyses. n.d. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/02/economic-impacts-of-ab-32%255B1%255D.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Economic Impacts of AB 32 Summary of Recent Analyses |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/02/economic-impacts-of-ab-32%255B1%255D.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientistsndeconomic, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Economic Impacts of AB 32 Summary of Recent Analyses}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/02/economic-impacts-of-ab-32%255B1%255D.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }