BOOM AND BUST COAL 2024

The report finds that while most countries are reducing coal proposals, global operating capacity grew by 48.4 GW in 2023, primarily driven by China. It highlights a stark divergence between China's construction surge and a record low in new starts elsewhere, while noting that only 15% of global operating coal capacity has a Paris-aligned retirement commitment.

• Global operating coal power capacity increased by 48.4 GW (2%) in 2023, reaching a total of 2,130 GW. This growth was primarily driven by China, which accounted for 47.4 GW of additions, or 68% of the global total.
• There is a significant gap in coal phaseout commitments; only 15% (317 GW) of current global operating coal capacity is committed to retire in alignment with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal. Phasing out all operating coal by 2040 would require retiring approximately 126 GW per year, or about two plants per week.
• China's coal construction is accelerating in contradiction to global trends and its own 2021 pledge to "strictly control" projects. In 2023, China had 70.2 GW of new construction starts, which is 19 times more than the rest of the world combined (3.7 GW).
• Outside of China, new coal construction starts hit a record annual low in 2023, with less than 4 GW of new projects beginning construction. This is significantly below the eight-year annual average of 16 GW (2015–2022).
• India is expanding its coal fleet, with 11.4 GW of entirely new coal proposals introduced in 2023, the highest since 2016. The government plans to add nearly 88 GW of new thermal capacity by 2032.
• The European Union and United Kingdom are leading phaseouts, but the current pace is not Paris-aligned. To achieve a total phaseout by 2030, the region must retire an average of 15.6 GW annually for the next seven years, nearly double the 2015–2023 average of 7.9 GW.
• In the United States, approximately half of the operating coal capacity (101.2 GW out of 200.1 GW) is expected to be decommissioned or converted by 2035. However, the growth of AI and cryptocurrency data centers is creating pressure to delay some retirements.
• Indonesia's energy transition is complicated by a surge in 'captive' coal plants used for industrial activities, particularly nickel smelters. Captive plants now make up 27.5% of Indonesia's operating coal capacity.
• Central Asia is trending away from the global transition, with proposed coal capacity now equivalent to 45% of the region's current operating capacity. Kazakhstan accounts for over 70% of the region's proposed capacity.
• Private financial institution coal policies saw a significant slowdown in 2023, with only 23 top institutions adopting or updating policies compared to 57 in 2022. Factors include a shift in focus to oil and gas and anti-ESG sentiment in North America.

APA

Trend Asia (2024). BOOM AND BUST COAL 2024. https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GEM_Boom-and-Bust-2024_EMBARGOED-11-April-2024-UTC.pdf

Chicago

Trend Asia. BOOM AND BUST COAL 2024. 2024. https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GEM_Boom-and-Bust-2024_EMBARGOED-11-April-2024-UTC.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Trend Asia |title=BOOM AND BUST COAL 2024 |date=April 2024 |url=https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GEM_Boom-and-Bust-2024_EMBARGOED-11-April-2024-UTC.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{trendasia2024boom, author = {{Trend Asia}}, title = {{BOOM AND BUST COAL 2024}}, institution = {Trend Asia}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://trendasia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/GEM_Boom-and-Bust-2024_EMBARGOED-11-April-2024-UTC.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }