¿Qué sigue para el Artículo 2.1(c)? Una teoría del cambio y cómo aplicarla

The policy brief addresses the lack of a shared vision for implementing Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement, which calls for making financial flows consistent with climate goals. It argues that current efforts are fragmented and risks of greenwashing are high. The authors propose a Theory of Change (ToC) to link high-level goals to specific activities across regulators, financial entities, the real economy, and civil society. The document emphasizes that while Article 9 focuses on the provision of public climate finance from developed to developing nations, Article 2.1(c) requires systemic reforms—such as climate-related financial disclosures, taxonomies, and fiscal policy changes—to redirect the broader global financial system. It concludes with recommendations for the COP30 (CMA7) to adopt a structured work program based on this ToC to avoid circular discussions and ensure a just transition.

• Article 2.1(c) is often misunderstood as an aspirational goal, but it is actually a systemic requirement for all financial flows—including private investments, public budgets, and central bank operations—to be aligned with climate goals.
• There is a significant gap between global financial activity and climate investment; in 2023, climate investment was 1.9 trillion USD, representing less than 2% of the 106.97 trillion USD global nominal GDP.
• Climate finance is heavily skewed toward mitigation, with 94% (1.78 trillion USD) of the 1.9 trillion USD in 2023 climate investments going to mitigation, while adaptation received only 3%.
• The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) sets a target of at least 300 billion USD annually by 2035, with a broader ambition to reach 1.3 trillion USD annually for developing countries.
• The authors propose a Theory of Change (ToC) with four primary outcomes: rapid increase of climate-resilient finance, managed reduction of finance that contradicts climate goals, facilitation of a just transition in developing countries, and inclusive participation of all countries and sectors in financial markets.
• Climate-related financial disclosures (such as TCFD and ISSB) and national taxonomies are critical tools for regulators to reduce information asymmetries and redirect capital toward sustainable investments.
• Developing countries face structural barriers, including high costs of capital and limited institutional capacity, which necessitate technical assistance and the implementation of the NCQG to achieve financial consistency.
• The Sharm el-Sheikh Dialogue (SeSD) has functioned more as a catalog of options than a structured framework, failing to link activities to specific results or define clear responsibilities.

APA

Carbajal, A. L., Watson, C., Laserna, M. R., Solano, J., Daza-Niño, N., Mateus-García, A., Salamanca, A., & Ramos, S. (2025). ¿Qué sigue para el Artículo 2.1(c)? Una teoría del cambio y cómo aplicarla. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251006-PB-articulo-2-1c.pdf

Chicago

Carbajal, Alejandra López, Charlene Watson, Mariana Rojas Laserna, Jimena Solano, Natalia Daza-Niño, Angélica Mateus-García, Alejandro Salamanca, and Silvy Ramos. ¿Qué sigue para el Artículo 2.1(c)? Una teoría del cambio y cómo aplicarla. Transforma, 2025. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251006-PB-articulo-2-1c.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carbajal |first1=Alejandra López |last2=Watson |first2=Charlene |last3=Laserna |first3=Mariana Rojas |last4=Solano |first4=Jimena |last5=Daza-Niño |first5=Natalia |last6=Mateus-García |first6=Angélica |last7=Salamanca |first7=Alejandro |last8=Ramos |first8=Silvy |title=¿Qué sigue para el Artículo 2.1(c)? Una teoría del cambio y cómo aplicarla |publisher=Transforma |date=October 2025 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251006-PB-articulo-2-1c.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbajal2025sigue, author = {Carbajal, Alejandra López and Watson, Charlene and Laserna, Mariana Rojas and Solano, Jimena and Daza-Niño, Natalia and Mateus-García, Angélica and Salamanca, Alejandro and Ramos, Silvy}, title = {{¿Qué sigue para el Artículo 2.1(c)? Una teoría del cambio y cómo aplicarla}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/20251006-PB-articulo-2-1c.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }