Una transición energética efectiva en Colombia: Estrategias para reducir la dependencia del gas

Colombia faces a projected gas supply deficit starting in 2030, as national production declines and import capacity becomes insufficient. The report argues that this vulnerability can be mitigated by reducing demand through a 14% increase in industrial energy efficiency and the electrification of residential cooking and water heating. Specifically, replacing 10% of gas stoves and 30% of water heaters with electric alternatives could significantly lower demand. The authors recommend a planned, just transition that includes reorienting subsidies toward electrification, implementing a national equipment replacement program, and avoiding long-term fossil fuel lock-ins like fracking.

• Colombia is projected to face a gas supply deficit starting in 2030, where national production and existing import capacity will be unable to meet internal demand. By 2034, this deficit could equal the combined total demand of the residential and industrial sectors.
• Implementing energy efficiency measures in industrial processes—specifically direct and indirect heat—could reduce industrial gas consumption by approximately 14% (about 14,277 GBTU) per year by 2030.
• Electrifying residential gas use could significantly curb demand: replacing 10% of gas stoves (1.2 million units) and 30% of water heaters (32,000 units) would reduce 2030 consumption by over 7,000 GBTU. Electrifying 16% of stoves would keep total national gas demand at 2024 levels by 2030.
• Combined efficiency and electrification efforts could reduce gas demand by 21,545 GBTU in 2030, which is 1.5 times the projected deficit for that year, potentially avoiding $2 billion in imports over a decade.
• The industrial sector's gas use is heavily tied to fossil fuel production, with oil refining and coal coking accounting for an average of 44% of industrial gas use over the last decade.
• Residential gas demand is sustained by high connectivity (11.8 million households) and significant state subsidies; in 2024, residential gas subsidies totaled 1.41 trillion Colombian pesos, with 70% funded by the national budget.
• The report argues against fracking as a solution to the deficit, citing high investment costs, long development times, and environmental risks that conflict with climate commitments.

APA

Suárez, W., Rodas, J. F. P., Vásquez, M. P., & Valencia, V. (2025). Una transición energética efectiva en Colombia: Estrategias para reducir la dependencia del gas. Transforma. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ES-Reporte-Una-transicion-energetica-efectiva-en-Colombia_Estrategias-para-reducir-la-dependencia-del-gas.pdf

Chicago

Suárez, Wilmar, Juan Felipe Parra Rodas, María Paulina Vásquez, and Verónica Valencia. Una transición energética efectiva en Colombia: Estrategias para reducir la dependencia del gas. Transforma, 2025. https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ES-Reporte-Una-transicion-energetica-efectiva-en-Colombia_Estrategias-para-reducir-la-dependencia-del-gas.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Suárez |first1=Wilmar |last2=Rodas |first2=Juan Felipe Parra |last3=Vásquez |first3=María Paulina |last4=Valencia |first4=Verónica |title=Una transición energética efectiva en Colombia: Estrategias para reducir la dependencia del gas |publisher=Transforma |date=4 December 2025 |url=https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ES-Reporte-Una-transicion-energetica-efectiva-en-Colombia_Estrategias-para-reducir-la-dependencia-del-gas.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{surez2025una, author = {Suárez, Wilmar and Rodas, Juan Felipe Parra and Vásquez, María Paulina and Valencia, Verónica}, title = {{Una transición energética efectiva en Colombia: Estrategias para reducir la dependencia del gas}}, institution = {Transforma}, year = {2025}, month = dec, url = {https://transforma.global/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/ES-Reporte-Una-transicion-energetica-efectiva-en-Colombia_Estrategias-para-reducir-la-dependencia-del-gas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }