Comments on how the global production gap can be considered in assessing the climate compatibility of UK’s future oil and gas licensing

The authors argue that any climate compatibility checkpoint for UK oil and gas licensing must be based on a rapid wind-down of production consistent with 1.5°C pathways. They highlight that while different IPCC scenarios vary in their assumptions regarding carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and methane reductions, all require production to peak by 2020 for oil and 2025 for gas. The authors suggest that as a high-income country with low revenue dependence on fossil fuels, the UK should adopt a precautionary approach and potentially decrease production faster than the global average to ensure an equitable transition. They further refute the claim that reducing UK production would not impact global emissions, citing empirical evidence that supply reductions increase prices and lower global consumption.

• To limit global warming to 1.5°C, all analyzed low-carbon pathways require a rapid and sustained reduction in global oil and gas production, with production peaking no later than 2020 for oil and 2025 for gas.
• Current global government plans and projections for fossil fuel production are significantly higher than 1.5°C-consistent levels; by 2030, projected production would be 57% higher for oil and 71% higher for gas than the median 1.5°C-warming pathways.
• The specific 'production gap' benchmark the UK adopts will depend on its assumptions regarding the probability of temperature overshoot, the rate of coal phase-down, the feasibility of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies like BECCS and afforestation, and the speed of methane emission reductions.
• Under a precautionary 'Below 1.5°C' pathway, global oil and gas production must decline by approximately 45-46% between 2020 and 2030. Using this as a benchmark, the UK's September 2021 OGA projections (showing 49% and 59% decreases) would be aligned, whereas the 2019 'Vision 2035' scenario (showing 22% and 28% decreases) would be incompatible.
• Equity principles suggest that high-income countries with low dependence on fossil fuel revenues, such as the UK, should decrease production faster than the global average to ensure a just transition.
• Reducing UK oil and gas production is likely to lead to a net decrease in global emissions because supply reductions increase prices, which in turn reduces global consumption.

APA

Achakulwisut, P., & Erickson, P. (2022). Comments on how the global production gap can be considered in assessing the climate compatibility of UK’s future oil and gas licensing. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/uk-checkpoint-response-25feb2022-1.pdf

Chicago

Achakulwisut, Ploy, and Peter Erickson. Comments on how the global production gap can be considered in assessing the climate compatibility of UK’s future oil and gas licensing. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/uk-checkpoint-response-25feb2022-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Achakulwisut |first1=Ploy |last2=Erickson |first2=Peter |title=Comments on how the global production gap can be considered in assessing the climate compatibility of UK’s future oil and gas licensing |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=25 February 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/uk-checkpoint-response-25feb2022-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{achakulwisut2022comments, author = {Achakulwisut, Ploy and Erickson, Peter}, title = {{Comments on how the global production gap can be considered in assessing the climate compatibility of UK’s future oil and gas licensing}}, publisher = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/uk-checkpoint-response-25feb2022-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }