North Sea oil and gas transition from a regional and global perspective

The report examines the global and regional context of oil and gas transitions, focusing on the North Sea region. It identifies a significant 'ambition gap' between national net-zero targets and actual industrial strategies in the UK and Norway, while noting Denmark as a first-mover with a 2050 phase-out date. Using a scorecard analysis based on seven just transition principles, the report finds that while Scotland leads in support for workers and communities, the UK and Norway struggle with carbon lock-in due to continued licensing and a lack of comprehensive regional support policies.

• There is a significant 'production gap' where governments plan to produce 57% more oil and 71% more gas by 2030 than is consistent with a 1.5°C warming trajectory.
• Denmark is the only North Sea producing nation to set a definitive end date for oil production, targeting a full phase-out by 2050.
• The UK and Norway continue to issue new exploration licenses, which risks creating carbon lock-in and extending production into the 2040s and 2050s.
• A scorecard analysis based on seven just transition principles shows that Scotland receives the highest overall score, particularly for its support of workers and communities, while the UK and Norway score poorly on regional and community support.
• Fossil fuel subsidies significantly distort the market; in 2020, fossil fuel prices were at least 50% below their true price, with coal being 99% below.
• The oil and gas industry is characterized by a severe gender imbalance, with men making up approximately 80% of the workforce in Norway and 75% in the UK, creating a risk that transition policies may only benefit male workers.
• Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund, with over EUR 1.1 trillion in assets, represents an unparalleled financial opportunity to fund a just transition, though political momentum to use it for this purpose is still developing.
• The EU's role as a major consumer influences North Sea production, but its own strategies may create lock-in effects by treating natural gas as a 'transition fuel' in infrastructure plans.

APA

Linde, L., Sanchez, F., Mete, G., & Lindberg, A. (2022). North Sea oil and gas transition from a regional and global perspective. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sei2022-012-oil-gas-north-sea-transition.pdf

Chicago

Linde, Linus, Felipe Sanchez, Gökçe Mete, and Amelinda Lindberg. North Sea oil and gas transition from a regional and global perspective. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sei2022-012-oil-gas-north-sea-transition.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Linde |first1=Linus |last2=Sanchez |first2=Felipe |last3=Mete |first3=Gökçe |last4=Lindberg |first4=Amelinda |title=North Sea oil and gas transition from a regional and global perspective |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=May 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sei2022-012-oil-gas-north-sea-transition.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{linde2022north, author = {Linde, Linus and Sanchez, Felipe and Mete, Gökçe and Lindberg, Amelinda}, title = {{North Sea oil and gas transition from a regional and global perspective}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/sei2022-012-oil-gas-north-sea-transition.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }