Report Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change

The report proposes a framework for setting long-term climate targets based on the adaptive capacities of natural ecosystems. It recommends a maximum global temperature increase of 1.0°C to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels and a sea-level rise limit of 0.2 to 0.5 meters above 1990 levels. The document analyzes the role of various greenhouse gases, introduces the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Sea-level Rise Potential (SRP) indices, and discusses the socio-economic challenges of implementing these targets in developing countries and centrally planned economies.

• The Working Group recommends a maximum rate of global mean temperature change of 0.1 °C per decade to protect vulnerable ecosystems.
• Two absolute temperature targets for committed warming are identified: a lower limit of 1.0 °C above pre-industrial global mean temperature to avoid unpredictable ecosystem damage, and an upper limit of 2.0 °C beyond which risks of grave damage increase rapidly.
• To stay within the 1.0 °C temperature limit, the report estimates maximum CO2-equivalent concentrations of 330 to 400 ppm (for a 4-2 °C range of climate sensitivity). For the 2.0 °C limit, the range is 400 to 560 ppm.
• The report recommends a maximum sea-level rise rate of 20 to 50 mm per decade and an absolute maximum rise of 0.2 to 0.5 m above the 1990 global mean sea level.
• A sea-level rise of 0.2 m would result in lower societal and ecological damage, while a rise of 0.5 m would prevent the complete destruction of island nations but still entail large increases in storm-related damage.
• The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is introduced as an index to compare the temperature-increasing effect of different greenhouse gases relative to CO2 over specific time horizons.
• The report introduces the Sea-level Rise Potential (SRP) to relate the emission of a specific greenhouse gas to its associated effect on sea-level rise, noting that SRP values are based on transient responses rather than equilibrium states.
• The report argues that the 'sensitivity approach' (based on gradual changes) should be complemented by a 'stability approach' that accounts for abrupt climate fluctuations and non-linear feedbacks, such as the Younger Dryas Event.
• Developing countries and centrally planned economies face significant constraints in reducing emissions due to poverty, high external debt burdens, and the need for rapid industrial growth to meet basic human needs.
• The report suggests a 'soft energy path' for developing nations, focusing on improving energy efficiency and adopting non-fossil renewable energy sources to sustain growth without increasing emissions.

APA

Rijsberman, F., & Swart, R. (1990). Report Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-TargetsAndIndicatorsOfClimaticChange-1990.pdf

Chicago

Rijsberman, F.R., and R.J. Swart. Report Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1990. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-TargetsAndIndicatorsOfClimaticChange-1990.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rijsberman |first1=F.R. |last2=Swart |first2=R.J. |title=Report Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1990 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-TargetsAndIndicatorsOfClimaticChange-1990.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rijsberman1990report, author = {Rijsberman, F.R. and Swart, R.J.}, title = {{Report Targets and Indicators of Climatic Change}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1990}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Report-TargetsAndIndicatorsOfClimaticChange-1990.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }