Fossil fuel supply, green growth, and unburnable carbon

The document examines the concept of 'unburnable carbon' and the risk of 'lock-in' where new fossil fuel infrastructure commits societies to high-emission pathways. It highlights a gap in green growth planning, which typically focuses on demand-side efficiency rather than supply-side extraction limits. The authors argue that without widespread carbon capture and storage (CCS), a 2°C warming limit will require leaving the majority of coal and unconventional oil reserves in the ground, potentially creating a 'carbon bubble' of overvalued assets.

• To limit global warming to 2°C, approximately two-thirds of proven oil, gas, and coal reserves must remain undeveloped, and existing infrastructure already slated for completion by 2017 could lock in the remaining allowable CO2 emissions.
• The 'lock-in' effect occurs when fossil fuel infrastructure is built, creating financial and political pressures to utilize the assets for their full economic life, which perpetuates high-emission pathways. For example, oil sands development in Canada has influenced domestic politics and reduced the country's international climate leadership.
• Coal and unconventional oil are the resources most likely to be stranded in a low-carbon world through 2100, as they are the most carbon-intensive and provide lower net social benefits compared to conventional oil and gas.
• Despite climate constraints, fossil fuel investment continues to grow, with upstream oil and gas investment projected to remain near $700 billion annually for two decades. Coal remains the fastest-growing fossil fuel globally, with 40% of production growth in the current decade intended for exports to China and India.
• There is a significant gap in green growth and Low Emissions Development Strategies (LEDS) in over 40 developing countries, as these plans almost entirely ignore the emissions implications of new fossil fuel supply infrastructure.
• The 'green paradox' or 'inter-temporal leakage' suggests that stringent future demand-side climate policies (like rising carbon prices) may actually accelerate near-term fossil fuel extraction, necessitating the use of supply-side policies to mitigate this risk.
• Supply-side policy options to keep carbon in the ground include reducing production subsidies (estimated at $80 to $285 billion per year for developing and emerging countries), restricting finance for supply projects, and initiatives like Ecuador's Yasuni-ITT, though the latter was abandoned in 2013 after failing to raise sufficient international funds.

APA

Lazarus, M., & Tempest, K. (2014). Fossil fuel supply, green growth, and unburnable carbon. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-Fossil-fuels-green-growth-unburnable-carbon.pdf

Chicago

Lazarus, Michael, and Kevin Tempest. Fossil fuel supply, green growth, and unburnable carbon. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2014. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-Fossil-fuels-green-growth-unburnable-carbon.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lazarus |first1=Michael |last2=Tempest |first2=Kevin |title=Fossil fuel supply, green growth, and unburnable carbon |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2014 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-Fossil-fuels-green-growth-unburnable-carbon.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lazarus2014fossil, author = {Lazarus, Michael and Tempest, Kevin}, title = {{Fossil fuel supply, green growth, and unburnable carbon}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2014}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-DB-2014-Fossil-fuels-green-growth-unburnable-carbon.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }