Knowledge and Insight Required to Act under Uncertainty Focusing on Robust Findings

The document emphasizes that scientific uncertainties should not justify delaying preventive actions against climate change. It highlights robust facts, such as the role of greenhouse gases and the delaying effect of aerosols and ocean inertia, to argue for a precautionary approach. The author notes that current efforts, including the Kyoto Protocol, are insufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations, and calls for industrial countries to lead emissions reductions to ensure global equity and sustainable development.

• The global mean temperature rose by 0.6 ± 0.2 ºC during the 20th century, a change that requires the inclusion of human emissions to be explained. This suggests a climate system sensitivity of at least 2.5 ºC for a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration.
• Atmospheric aerosols (air pollution) currently mask a significant portion of greenhouse gas warming, potentially reducing northern hemisphere warming by 30-50%. As air pollution is reduced to protect human health, the long-term greenhouse gas warming will become more apparent.
• Climate change is effectively irreversible and delayed by the inertia of the climate system, particularly the warming of top ocean layers. Only about 80% of the ultimate warming from past emissions has been realized.
• Current emissions trends suggest the Kyoto Protocol targets are unlikely to be met. While countries in economic transition reduced emissions by 25-35% since 1990, the USA is projected to increase its share of industrial country emissions from 36% in 1990 to 42% by 2010.
• Climate change is expected to worsen water stress, with the number of people living in water-stressed areas projected to increase from 1.7 billion to several billions by 2050. Specific regions like central Asia, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and Australia are projected to see decreases in annual mean stream flow.
• Geological storage of carbon dioxide in aquifers or deserted oil and gas fields below 800-1000 metres is a promising mitigation option, though it could potentially double the costs of providing primary energy.

APA

Bolin, B. (2004). Knowledge and Insight Required to Act under Uncertainty Focusing on Robust Findings. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/responding_to_climate_change_bolin_2004.pdf

Chicago

Bolin, Bert. Knowledge and Insight Required to Act under Uncertainty Focusing on Robust Findings. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2004. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/responding_to_climate_change_bolin_2004.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bolin |first1=Bert |title=Knowledge and Insight Required to Act under Uncertainty Focusing on Robust Findings |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2004 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/responding_to_climate_change_bolin_2004.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bolin2004knowledge, author = {Bolin, Bert}, title = {{Knowledge and Insight Required to Act under Uncertainty Focusing on Robust Findings}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2004}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/responding_to_climate_change_bolin_2004.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }