The Production Gap

The document provides the technical appendices for the 2021 Production Gap report, outlining the data sources and calculations used to determine the discrepancy between planned fossil fuel production and climate-consistent levels. It describes the 'countries’ plans and projections' (CPP) pathway, which aggregates data from 15 major producer countries and scales it globally using IEA STEPS. It also details the selection of 1.5°C and 2°C consistent pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 database, applying specific constraints on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Finally, it compares the 2021 findings with the 2019 assessment, noting that the overall production gap remains largely unchanged despite minor declines in coal and oil projections.

• The 'countries’ plans and projections' (CPP) pathway for 2021 is based on data from 15 major producer countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). These countries represented approximately 75% of global fossil fuel production in 2020 on an energy basis.
• To identify 1.5°C- and 2°C-consistent pathways, the authors applied additional constraints to IPCC scenarios regarding carbon dioxide removal (CDR), specifically limiting bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to 5 GtCO2 annually and afforestation/reforestation to 3.6 GtCO2 annually.
• The analysis identifies 19 scenarios as '1.5°C-consistent' (comprising 'Below-1.5°C' and '1.5°C-low overshoot' classes) and 55 scenarios as '2°C-consistent' (comprising '1.5°C-high overshoot' and 'Lower-2°C' classes).
• The production gap is calculated using three different units: energy units (exajoules per year), physical units (such as million tonnes for coal), and extraction-based CO2 emissions. The latter uses top-down emission factors: 0.091 GtCO2 per EJ for coal, 0.061 for oil, and 0.052 for gas.
• Comparing the 2021 results to the 2019 assessment, the global CPP pathways for fossil fuels have decreased by less than 3% in all future years analysed (2025-2040), with a decrease of 0.5% in 2030 and 3% in 2040, leading the authors to conclude the production gap is largely unchanged.
• The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp near-term decrease in the oil CPP pathway through 2025 due to lower demand forecasts and investment, although these effects are projected to be short-lived.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2021). The Production Gap. http://www.productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PGR2021_Appendices_B-C.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The Production Gap. 2021. http://www.productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PGR2021_Appendices_B-C.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The Production Gap |date=2021 |url=http://www.productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PGR2021_Appendices_B-C.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2021production, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The Production Gap}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, url = {http://www.productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/PGR2021_Appendices_B-C.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }