The Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda

The report finds that Rwanda faces significant economic costs from existing climate variability and future climate change, particularly in health, agriculture, and water sectors. It estimates that future climate change could cost Rwanda nearly 1% of its GDP annually by 2030, excluding extreme events. Adaptation costs are projected to range from $50 million to $600 million per year by 2030, depending on whether development-related needs are included. The study also identifies a low-carbon growth pathway as being in Rwanda's self-interest to avoid 'lock-in' to high-emission infrastructure and to access carbon financing.

• Existing climate variability already imposes significant economic costs on Rwanda, with periodic floods and droughts reducing economic growth. For example, the 2007 flood in the Nyabihu and Rubavu districts resulted in direct measurable economic costs between $4 million and $22 million, representing approximately 0.1% to 0.6% of GDP for those two districts alone.
• Future climate change is projected to cause additional economic losses. Aggregate models suggest that by 2030, net economic costs—excluding future floods and other extremes—could be equivalent to a loss of nearly 1% of GDP annually.
• Climate warming is expected to significantly increase the health burden of malaria. By the 2050s, a central projection of 2.2ºC warming could increase the rural population at risk for malaria by 153%, with potential full economic costs exceeding $50 million per year.
• Socio-economic growth and population increases will amplify the costs of extreme events even without climate change. By 2030, these drivers alone could increase the costs of periodic floods by a factor of five, potentially leading to direct economic costs of up to $100 million for a large-scale regional event similar to the 2007 flood.
• Ecosystem services are critical to the Rwandan economy, underpinning over 50% of the national GDP. These services are currently under stress from population pressure and biodiversity loss, which climate change will further exacerbate.
• Adaptation costs for Rwanda are estimated to rise over time. Immediate needs for 2012 are estimated at $50 million per year for building capacity and early priorities, rising to $300 million to $400 million if social protection and accelerated development are included. By 2030, costs to address future climate change alone are estimated between $50 million and $300 million per year, with a plausible upper bound of $600 million per year when including development activities.
• Rwanda's greenhouse gas emissions are currently low, but are projected to increase significantly under a 'business as usual' scenario consistent with Vision 2020, with total emissions estimated to double between 2005 and 2020. The transport and agriculture sectors are expected to be the dominant sources of future emissions.
• Following a low-carbon development path is considered to be in Rwanda's self-interest, offering economic benefits through reduced fuel imports, improved air quality, and access to international carbon financing. Many 'no regrets' options, particularly in transport efficiency, domestic stoves, and agriculture, could be realized at negative cost.

APA

Downing, T., Watkiss, P., Dyszynski, J., Butterfield, R., Devisscher, T., Pye, S., Olwoch, J., Ali, B., Harding, B., Tas, A., de Blois, M., Hunt, A., Taylor, T., Bouma, M., Kovats, S., Lager, B., Suazo, J., Rwamuhizi, F., Nyberg, Y., ... Habineza, F. (n.d.). The Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/cc_economics_rwanda.pdf

Chicago

Downing, Tom, Paul Watkiss, Jillian Dyszynski, Ruth Butterfield, Tahia Devisscher, Steve Pye, Jane Olwoch, et al. The Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda. Stockholm Environment Institute, n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/cc_economics_rwanda.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{downingndeconomics, author = {Downing, Tom and Watkiss, Paul and Dyszynski, Jillian and Butterfield, Ruth and Devisscher, Tahia and Pye, Steve and Olwoch, Jane and Ali, Basra and Harding, Brian and Tas, Adriaan and de Blois, Mark and Hunt, Alistair and Taylor, Tim and Bouma, Menno and Kovats, Sari and Lager, Bo and Suazo, Jorge and Rwamuhizi, Faustin and Nyberg, Ylva and Bizimana, Jean Pierre and Mugiraneza, Theodomir and Ford, Robert and Maitima, Joseph and Mugatha, Simon and Kariuki, Patrick and Chambwera, Muyeye and Birch, Tom and Twarabamenye, Emmanuel and Simbizi, Marie Christine D. and Mwesigye, Edward K. and Habineza, Frank}, title = {{The Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/cc_economics_rwanda.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }