European and Global Climate Change Projections

The ClimateCost project analysed three emissions scenarios (A1B, E1, and RCP8.5) to project temperature and precipitation changes. Findings indicate that global temperatures could rise by 2.4°C to 3.4°C by 2071-2100 under the A1B scenario, with Europe experiencing more intense summer warming, particularly in the south. While the E1 mitigation scenario reduces these increases, projections for all scenarios do not significantly diverge until after 2040, emphasizing the need for immediate adaptation. Precipitation projections show higher uncertainty, but suggest wetter winters for Northern Europe and drier conditions for Southern Europe.

• Under the medium-high emission baseline scenario (A1B), global average temperatures are projected to rise between 1.6°C and 2.3°C by 2041-2070, and between 2.4°C and 3.4°C by 2071-2100, relative to a 1961-1990 baseline.
• European temperature increases are projected to be higher than the global average, especially during the summer. In the A1B scenario, the Iberian Peninsula could see a mean temperature increase of up to 5°C by 2071-2100.
• The E1 mitigation scenario, designed to align with the EU's 2°C global target, limits the projected global temperature increase to approximately 1.5°C by 2071-2100. However, European summer temperatures under this scenario are still projected to increase by more than 2°C, and potentially over 3°C, by 2071-2100.
• The RCP8.5 high-emission scenario is projected to result in global warming of approximately 3.5°C by 2071-2100 relative to the 1961-1990 baseline.
• Climate projections for different emission pathways do not diverge significantly until after 2040, with mean global temperatures projected to increase by about 1°C by 2011-2040 regardless of the pathway, indicating that early warming is already 'locked-in'.
• Precipitation projections are more uncertain than temperature projections, but show robust regional patterns: Northern and Western Europe are projected to have wetter winters, while Southern Europe is projected to be drier year-round, with summer precipitation potentially reduced by 50% by the end of the century.
• There is significant structural and statistical uncertainty in climate modelling, particularly regarding precipitation and regional changes. The project argues that this uncertainty should be quantified and used to plan robust strategies rather than as a justification for inaction.

APA

Christensen, O. B., Goodess, C. M., Harris, I., & Watkiss, P. (2011). European and Global Climate Change Projections. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf

Chicago

Christensen, Ole B., Clare M. Goodess, Ian Harris, and Paul Watkiss. European and Global Climate Change Projections. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Christensen |first1=Ole B. |last2=Goodess |first2=Clare M. |last3=Harris |first3=Ian |last4=Watkiss |first4=Paul |title=European and Global Climate Change Projections |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{christensen2011european, author = {Christensen, Ole B. and Goodess, Clare M. and Harris, Ian and Watkiss, Paul}, title = {{European and Global Climate Change Projections}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }