European and Global Climate Change Projections

This technical policy briefing note describes the climate change projections used in the ClimateCost project, focusing on temperature and precipitation changes globally and across Europe. It evaluates three emission scenarios—A1B (medium-high), E1 (mitigation), and RCP8.5 (high)—using a combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to assess future impacts and the associated uncertainties.

• Under the medium-high emission baseline scenario (A1B), global average temperatures are projected to rise by 1.6°C to 2.3°C between 2041 and 2070, and by 2.4°C to 3.4°C between 2071 and 2100, relative to a 1961-1990 baseline.
• The E1 mitigation scenario, designed to align with the EU's 2-degree global target, is projected to limit the global average temperature increase to approximately 1.5°C by 2071-2100 compared to the 1961-1990 baseline.
• The RCP8.5 high-emission scenario is projected to result in global warming of approximately 3.5°C by 2071-2100 relative to the 1961-1990 baseline.
• Climate projections for different emission pathways do not diverge significantly until after 2040, with mean global temperatures projected to increase by about 1°C between 2011 and 2040 regardless of the pathway.
• European temperature increases are projected to be higher than the global average, particularly during the summer. In the A1B scenario, the Iberian Peninsula could see a mean temperature increase of up to 5°C by 2071-2100.
• Precipitation projections show robust regional patterns: Northern and Western Europe are projected to have wetter winters, while Southern Europe is projected to experience drier conditions year-round, with summer precipitation potentially reduced by 50% by the end of the century.
• There is significant uncertainty in precipitation projections, with the direction of change (increase or decrease) being unknown in some European regions across different model projections.
• The project emphasizes that uncertainty in climate projections—stemming from scenario, structural, and statistical sources—should not be used as a justification for inaction but should instead drive the planning of robust adaptation strategies.

APA

Christensen, O. B., Goodess, C. M., Harris, I., & Watkiss, P. (2011). European and Global Climate Change Projections. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf

Chicago

Christensen, Ole B., Clare M. Goodess, Ian Harris, and Paul Watkiss. European and Global Climate Change Projections. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Christensen |first1=Ole B. |last2=Goodess |first2=Clare M. |last3=Harris |first3=Ian |last4=Watkiss |first4=Paul |title=European and Global Climate Change Projections |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=September 2011 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{christensen2011european, author = {Christensen, Ole B. and Goodess, Clare M. and Harris, Ian and Watkiss, Paul}, title = {{European and Global Climate Change Projections}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2011}, month = sep, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/sei-climatecost-european-and-global-climate-change-projections.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }