Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Tallinn assesses the national Long-Term Strategies (LTS) of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It evaluates how these documents align with the EU's Governance Regulation (2018/1999), which requires member states to outline decarbonisation pathways to 2050. The analysis finds that while all three Baltic states commit to climate neutrality by 2050, their strategies are characterized by significant heterogeneity in structure, a lack of detailed sectoral modelling, and insufficient analysis of investment needs and socio-economic impacts.

• All three Baltic states have formally committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, though they differ in the specificity of their interim targets. Lithuania provides the most detailed targets for 2030 and 2040, including specific goals for renewable energy share and energy efficiency by 2050.
• The strategies exhibit a critical lack of economy-wide and sectoral modelling. None of the countries appear to have performed modelling at the sectoral level that explicitly targets climate neutrality, often leaving projections as indicative rather than based on rigorous assessment.
• Investment needs and financing strategies are largely absent from the LTS documents. Only Latvia provides an estimate of investment needs, which is referenced from an external study rather than being integrated into the strategy itself.
• Socio-economic and distributive impact assessments are insufficient across the region. There is little information on how the costs of the green transition will be shared between the public and private sectors or the specific burden on households.
• The Baltic states face significant energy security challenges and dependency, particularly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While this is noted in the strategies, there is almost no discussion of regional collaboration to pool resources or reduce risk within the LTS documents.
• Research and Development (R&D) is recognized as a priority in all three countries, with a general target to increase R&D spending to 2% of GDP. However, the strategies lack detail on specific funding sources and the establishment of new research institutions.
• Governance and monitoring vary by country; Estonia is highlighted as a positive example for transparency due to its 'Tree of Truth' online tool, which monitors progress toward the goals of the Estonia 2035 (EE2035) plan.
• Sectoral detail is generally inadequate, with some sectors either briefly mentioned or omitted entirely. For instance, the Estonian LTS lacks a separate section for buildings and integrates industry with energy.

APA

Walke, P., Tool, B., & Peterson, K. (2022). Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf

Chicago

Walke, Peter, Brigita Tool, and Kaja Peterson. Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Walke |first1=Peter |last2=Tool |first2=Brigita |last3=Peterson |first3=Kaja |title=Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=14 December 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{walke2022assessment, author = {Walke, Peter and Tool, Brigita and Peterson, Kaja}, title = {{Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }