Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries

The assessment finds that while Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all commit to climate neutrality by 2050, their strategies are largely aspirational and lack the rigorous sectoral modelling, investment analysis, and socioeconomic impact assessments required by EU regulations. Lithuania's strategy is the most recent and detailed regarding targets, while Latvia's is the most legible. Estonia's original LTS is outdated and brief, though supplemented by the broader 'Eesti 2035' plan. Common regional weaknesses include a lack of integrated financial planning and insufficient detail on a 'just transition,' particularly for Estonia's oil-shale region. The report recommends structural harmonisation, comprehensive sectoral modelling, and increased regional collaboration to enhance energy security and achieve decarbonisation goals.

• All three Baltic states have formally committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest, though they differ significantly in the detail and specificity of their interim targets.
• The strategies are generally viewed as aspirational rather than strategic due to a critical lack of economy-wide and sectoral modelling to project emissions and the impact of specific policies.
• There is a systemic failure across all three countries to integrate detailed investment needs, financing instruments, or the distribution of costs between public and private sectors into their strategies.
• Socioeconomic and distributive impacts are largely ignored, leaving the burden on households unclear and the requirements for a 'just transition' unaddressed, specifically regarding Estonia's Ida-Viru oil-shale region.
• Lithuania's strategy is the most recent (July 2021) and provides the most comprehensive set of targets, including specific goals for 2030 and 2040 and the only 2050 targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy share.
• Estonia's original 2017 LTS is considered outdated and insufficient, consisting of only six pages; it is now supplemented by the 'Eesti 2035' (EE2035) development plan, which introduces the climate neutrality target.
• Latvia's strategy is noted as the most legible due to its detailed description of current and historical emissions, although it lacks specific sectoral targets and relies on external reports for investment estimates.
• Energy security is a critical cross-cutting issue for the region, exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, yet there is almost no discussion of regional collaboration within the LTS documents.
• All three countries aim to increase Research and Development (R&D) spending to 2% of GDP, though they lack detailed plans on funding sources or specific institutional frameworks to achieve this.

APA

Walke, P., Tool, B., & Peterson, K. (2022). Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf

Chicago

Walke, Peter, Brigita Tool, and Kaja Peterson. Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2022. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Walke |first1=Peter |last2=Tool |first2=Brigita |last3=Peterson |first3=Kaja |title=Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=14 December 2022 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{walke2022assessment, author = {Walke, Peter and Tool, Brigita and Peterson, Kaja}, title = {{Assessment of the national Long-Term Strategies of the Baltic State countries}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/report-lts-b3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }