Linking Global and Local Scenarios under Climate Change

The briefing paper argues that existing global scenarios, such as the SRES, fail to capture the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of local vulnerabilities. It suggests that current local research focuses too heavily on outcomes rather than the evolving relationships between global drivers and local realities. To address this, the authors propose a ten-step 'glocal' methodology that maps these relationships, uses indicators to track changes across different future storylines, and incorporates stakeholder feedback to inform adaptation planning.

• Global scenarios, specifically the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), are limited in their ability to project local social realities because their categories—demographic change, economic development, and technological change—cannot capture locally pertinent factors like informal institutions, uncertainties, and the heterogeneous nature of vulnerability.
• Local-scale research often focuses on outcomes and past adaptations but neglects how the relationship between global drivers and local realities evolves over time, which is essential for understanding future adaptation options.
• The authors propose a 10-step methodology for developing 'glocal futures' that involves identifying local concerns, mapping relationships between global drivers and local realisations, establishing a range of qualitative scenarios, and using a matrix to describe how these relationships change based on future development pathways.
• The UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) guidance for developing scenarios is deemed more relevant to mitigation and is criticized for having a 'cursory attempt' at moving between scales and failing to adequately address social and informal institutions.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). Linking Global and Local Scenarios under Climate Change. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/linking_global_local_scenarios.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Linking Global and Local Scenarios under Climate Change. n.d. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/linking_global_local_scenarios.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Linking Global and Local Scenarios under Climate Change |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/linking_global_local_scenarios.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendlinking, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Linking Global and Local Scenarios under Climate Change}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Risk-livelihoods/linking_global_local_scenarios.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }