A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China

The report compares a Baseline scenario, where China's energy sector emissions grow to 18.9 GT by 2050, with a Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS). The DCRS aims to reduce 2050 emissions to 1.9 GT by implementing aggressive energy efficiency, electrification of transport, large-scale renewable deployment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the power sector. The analysis concludes that while technically possible, the DCRS requires the simultaneous and rapid implementation of all proposed measures to meet the 230 GT cumulative emissions budget.

• In the Baseline scenario, China's energy sector CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 4.8 GT in 2005 to 12.3 GT in 2030 and 18.9 GT in 2050.
• The Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS) targets a cumulative emissions budget of 229 GT CO2 between 2005 and 2050, with annual emissions peaking in 2017 at 7.4 GT before falling to 1.9 GT by 2050.
• The DCRS assumes a massive shift in passenger road transport, with 90% of all road passenger-km delivered by electrical vehicles by 2050.
• To decarbonize the power sector, the DCRS proposes the accelerated retirement of all existing coal and oil gas fired power plants by 2045.
• The DCRS relies on carbon capture and storage (CCS) for all new coal plants built from 2020 onwards, capturing 90% of emitted CO2, and requires the capture of 60.0 GT of CO2 between 2020 and 2050.
• Renewable electricity capacity (including wind, solar, MSW/biomass, and small hydro) is projected to increase from 1.06 GW in 2005 to 1,247 GW by 2050 in the DCRS, accounting for 41% of installed capacity.
• In the industrial sector, the DCRS assumes electric arc furnaces (EAFs) for steel production will reach a 75% market share by 2050, compared to 13% in 2005.
• The DCRS assumes a 50% reduction in 2050 energy intensity for the household sector and a decline in service sector energy intensities of 2.1%/year from 2005 to 2050.
• The report concludes that the DCRS is only achievable if all its elements are implemented simultaneously and quickly, as the loss of any single major element would prevent meeting the mitigation goals.

APA

Heaps, C. (2009). A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf

Chicago

Heaps, Charles. A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Heaps |first1=Charles |title=A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=24 May 2009 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{heaps2009deep, author = {Heaps, Charles}, title = {{A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }