A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China

This technical feasibility study by the Stockholm Environment Institute explores two energy scenarios for China from 2005 to 2050. The Baseline scenario projects a nearly four-fold increase in energy sector CO2 emissions, while the Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS) examines the possibility of limiting cumulative emissions to 229 GT CO2 to align with the Greenhouse Development Rights (GDRs) framework and a global goal of keeping temperature increases below 2°C.

• In the Baseline scenario, China's energy sector CO2 emissions are projected to grow from 4.8 GT in 2005 to 12.4 GT in 2030 and 18.0 GT in 2050.
• The Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario (DCRS) aims to limit cumulative energy sector emissions to approximately 230 GT CO2 between 2005 and 2050, resulting in 2050 annual emissions that are about 90% lower than the baseline projection.
• The DCRS for the buildings sector assumes a 50% reduction in 2050 energy intensity compared to the baseline, achieved through passive design, retrofitting, and a shift from fossil fuels to electricity, district heating, and solar energy.
• Passenger transport in the DCRS is characterized by a reduction in total passenger-km growth (to a factor of 3.7 instead of 6.3), a maintained rail share of 30% by 2050, and a transition where 90% of road passenger-km are delivered by electric vehicles by 2050.
• Industrial mitigation in the DCRS relies on increasing the market share of electric arc furnaces (EAFs) for steel to 75% by 2050 and implementing carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 50% of both BOF-produced steel and cement kilns by 2050.
• The DCRS electricity strategy involves the early retirement of all existing coal and oil gas fired plants by 2045 and the requirement that all new coal plants from 2020 onwards use CCS to capture 90% of emissions.
• Under the DCRS, renewable electricity capacity (wind, solar, MSW/biomass, and small hydro) would increase from 1.06 GW in 2005 to 1,247 GW by 2050, accounting for 41% of installed capacity.
• The DCRS requires the capture of 60.0 GT of CO2 between 2020 and 2050, with a capture rate of 3.78 GT per year by 2050; this is potentially feasible given a provisional estimate of China's geological storage capacity at 196 GT CO2.
• The DCRS is described as a fragile pathway where the failure of any single major element—such as vehicle electrification or CCS deployment—would prevent the scenario from meeting its mitigation goals.

APA

Heaps, C. (2009). A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf

Chicago

Heaps, Charles. A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2009. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Heaps |first1=Charles |title=A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=24 May 2009 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{heaps2009deep, author = {Heaps, Charles}, title = {{A Deep Carbon Reduction Scenario for China}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2009}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/DCRSFinal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }