China’s Sustainable Energy Future

This executive summary details a study by the Energy Research Institute (ERI) on China's energy and carbon emissions trajectories from 1998 to 2020. Using three scenarios—Ordinary Effort, Promoting Sustainability, and Green Growth—the report analyzes how different policy priorities regarding energy efficiency and supply structure impact economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions.

• China could quadruple its gross domestic product between 1998 and 2020 while limiting energy use growth to between 70% and 130%, depending on how energy services are delivered.
• Coal is expected to remain the dominant primary energy source for China through 2020, accounting for 54% to 65% of primary energy despite the growth of other fuels and efficiency gains.
• The growth of motor vehicles is projected to increase China's dependence on imported oil, with annual imports potentially reaching 320 Mt by 2020.
• Natural gas demand is expected to grow rapidly to serve households, commercial buildings, and electric utilities, though the ability to secure sufficient supply remains a critical uncertainty.
• The industrial sector will remain the largest energy consumer through 2020, representing 56% to 58% of all final energy use across all scenarios.
• Energy-related carbon emissions could more than double between 1998 and 2020 if sustainable policies are ignored, but could be limited to a 50% increase if such policies are aggressively pursued.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (n.d.). China’s Sustainable Energy Future. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/ChinaScenariosSummary.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. China’s Sustainable Energy Future. n.d. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/ChinaScenariosSummary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=China’s Sustainable Energy Future |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/ChinaScenariosSummary.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitutendchinas, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{China’s Sustainable Energy Future}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/ChinaScenariosSummary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }