The Three Salient Global Mitigation Pathways Assessed in Light of the IPCC Carbon Budgets

The document evaluates three global mitigation pathways against IPCC carbon budgets to determine their probability of limiting global surface temperature increases. The 1.5°C marker pathway, with emissions peaking in 2014 and declining by 7.1% annually, has a greater than 66% probability of staying below 2°C. The 2°C marker pathway, with a 3.4% annual decline from a 2014 peak, has a less than 50% chance of holding warming below 2°C. The G8 pathway, based on a 2008 declaration with emissions peaking in 2021, has a chance of staying below 2°C that is far less than 33%.

• The 1.5°C marker pathway is characterized by emissions peaking in 2014 and declining by up to 7.1% per year, with cumulative emissions for 2000–2100 totaling 1,720 Gt CO2e; it has a significantly greater than 66% probability of keeping warming below 2°C.
• The 2°C marker pathway, which sees emissions peak in 2014 and decline by up to 3.4% per year with cumulative emissions of 2,380 Gt CO2e for 2000–2100, actually has a less than 50% chance of limiting warming to below 2°C.
• The G8 pathway, based on a 2008 G8 declaration, involves emissions peaking in 2021 and declining by a maximum of 4.5% per year with a cumulative budget of 2,860 Gt CO2e; its probability of keeping warming below 2°C is far less than 33%.

APA

Baer, P., Athanasiou, T., & Kartha, S. (2013). The Three Salient Global Mitigation Pathways Assessed in Light of the IPCC Carbon Budgets. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/publications/the-three-salient-global-mitigation-pathways-assessed-in-light-of-the-ipcc-carbon-budgets/

Chicago

Baer, P., T. Athanasiou, and S. Kartha. The Three Salient Global Mitigation Pathways Assessed in Light of the IPCC Carbon Budgets. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/publications/the-three-salient-global-mitigation-pathways-assessed-in-light-of-the-ipcc-carbon-budgets/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Baer |first1=P. |last2=Athanasiou |first2=T. |last3=Kartha |first3=S. |title=The Three Salient Global Mitigation Pathways Assessed in Light of the IPCC Carbon Budgets |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1 November 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/the-three-salient-global-mitigation-pathways-assessed-in-light-of-the-ipcc-carbon-budgets/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{baer2013three, author = {Baer, P. and Athanasiou, T. and Kartha, S.}, title = {{The Three Salient Global Mitigation Pathways Assessed in Light of the IPCC Carbon Budgets}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = nov, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/the-three-salient-global-mitigation-pathways-assessed-in-light-of-the-ipcc-carbon-budgets/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }