Climate Change Impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region and their Implications for Vulnerable Population Groups

The MENA region is identified as a climate hot spot facing extreme heat, drought, and aridity. The agricultural sector, which is 70% rain-fed and a primary employer, is highly exposed; in a 2 °C warming scenario, annual water discharge is projected to drop by 15–45%. These biophysical pressures, combined with a population projected to double by 2070, are expected to deteriorate rural livelihoods, increase migration to urban areas, heighten food import dependency, and potentially exacerbate social unrest in politically unstable areas.

• The MENA region is a critical hot spot for climate change, characterized by increasing aridity, drought, and extreme heat. These biophysical impacts, combined with existing pressures and low resilience in certain countries, create high vulnerabilities across various sectors and social dimensions.
• The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable because 70% of it is rain-fed and it serves as the largest employer in many Arab countries. In a 2 °C warming scenario, annual water discharge is projected to decrease by 15–45% (reaching 75% in a 4 °C scenario), while unusual heat extremes are expected to affect approximately one-third of the land area, threatening local food production.
• Climate-driven declines in agricultural productivity are expected to worsen rural livelihoods and drive migration toward urban centers. With the regional population projected to double by 2070, increasing food and water demand may raise import dependency and contribute to social unrest within unstable political environments.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2017). Climate Change Impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region and their Implications for Vulnerable Population Groups. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-impacts-in-the-middle-east-and-northern-africa-region-and-their-implications-for-vulnerable-population-groups/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Climate Change Impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region and their Implications for Vulnerable Population Groups. 2017. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-impacts-in-the-middle-east-and-northern-africa-region-and-their-implications-for-vulnerable-population-groups/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Climate Change Impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region and their Implications for Vulnerable Population Groups |date=12 April 2017 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-impacts-in-the-middle-east-and-northern-africa-region-and-their-implications-for-vulnerable-population-groups/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2017climate, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Climate Change Impacts in the Middle East and Northern Africa Region and their Implications for Vulnerable Population Groups}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2017}, month = apr, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-change-impacts-in-the-middle-east-and-northern-africa-region-and-their-implications-for-vulnerable-population-groups/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }