Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology

This document outlines the forecasting methodology used in the Chilling Prospects 2022 report to estimate global risk associated with the lack of access to sustainable cooling through 2030. The methodology identifies four risk profiles based on income and electricity access and evaluates three scenarios—Current trends, SDG7.1, and a combined SDG7.1 and SDG1.1 scenario—across 76 countries to determine how electrification and poverty reduction influence vulnerability to heat.

• The methodology identifies four distinct risk profiles based on income and electricity access: the rural poor (lacking electricity and living in extreme poverty), the urban poor (having some electricity but living in poverty and poor quality housing), lower-middle income (earning USD 1.90 to USD 10.00 per day with some electricity access), and middle-income (earning USD 10.01 to USD 20.00 per day and typically owning air conditioners and refrigerators).
• The analysis covers 76 countries in total: 54 identified as high impact based on socioeconomic and climatic conditions, and 22 additional countries with extreme heat hazards.
• The 'Current trends' scenario projects risk based on historical electricity access rates, adjusted by the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), and extreme poverty trends (people living on USD 1.90 per day or less) based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP 2) scenario.
• The SDG7.1 scenario assumes 100 percent electricity access in both urban and rural areas by 2030 for all covered countries, while maintaining current trends for extreme poverty to isolate the effect of electrification on cooling risk.
• The combined SDG7.1 and SDG1.1 scenario projects that by 2030, all 76 countries achieve universal electricity access and reduce the share of people living in extreme poverty (USD 1.90 per day or less) to 3 percent or less.

APA

Sustainable Energy for All (2022). Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology. https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology

Chicago

Sustainable Energy for All. Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology. 2022. https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Sustainable Energy for All |title=Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology |date=2022 |url=https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sustainableenergyforall2022access, author = {{Sustainable Energy for All}}, title = {{Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology}}, institution = {Sustainable Energy for All}, year = {2022}, url = {https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }