Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology

The methodology identifies four risk profiles based on income and electricity access: rural poor, urban poor, lower-middle income, and middle-income. It utilizes three forecasting scenarios—Current trends, SDG7.1 (universal electricity access), and a combined SDG7.1 and SDG1.1 (universal electricity and extreme poverty reduction to 3% or less)—to analyze vulnerability to heat. The analysis covers 54 high-impact countries and 22 additional countries with extreme heat hazards, incorporating data on population growth, urbanization, and informal settlements.

• The methodology categorizes populations into four distinct risk profiles based on income levels and electricity access: the rural poor (lacking electricity and living in extreme poverty), the urban poor (having some electricity but living in poverty and poor housing), lower-middle income (earning USD 1.90 to USD 10.00 per day with some electricity access), and middle-income (earning USD 10.01 to USD 20.00 per day and typically owning cooling appliances).
• The forecasting analysis covers a total of 76 countries, consisting of 54 countries identified as 'high impact' due to socioeconomic and climatic conditions, and 22 additional countries characterized by extreme heat hazards.
• Three scenarios are used to forecast risk through 2030: a 'Current trends' scenario based on historic trajectories and IEA STEPS projections; an 'SDG7.1' scenario projecting 100 percent electricity access in all urban and rural areas; and an 'SDG7.1 and SDG1.1' scenario projecting both universal electricity access and a reduction of extreme poverty to 3 percent or less of the population in all 76 countries.
• Access to electricity and extreme poverty are identified as the two primary constraints to sustainable cooling, though the methodology notes that electricity connection alone is insufficient due to issues of quality, reliability, and affordability.

APA

Sustainable Energy for All (2022). Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology. https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology

Chicago

Sustainable Energy for All. Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology. 2022. https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Sustainable Energy for All |title=Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology |date=2022 |url=https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sustainableenergyforall2022access, author = {{Sustainable Energy for All}}, title = {{Access to cooling and risk scenarios in 2030: Forecasting methodology}}, institution = {Sustainable Energy for All}, year = {2022}, url = {https://www.seforall.org/chilling-prospects-2022/access-to-cooling-and-risk-scenarios-in-2030-forecasting-methodology}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }