Geopolitical Turmoil: BRICS Economic Windfall?

The document analyzes the economic relationship between South Africa and the BRICS nations, noting that while trade has grown, it remains unbalanced and dominated by raw material exports to China. It identifies three primary 'enablers' for deepening these ties: the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the shift in global manufacturing due to US-China rivalry (including 'friend-shoring' and 'Chexit'), and the potential expansion of BRICS membership. The author recommends that South Africa use its 2023 BRICS chairship to promote Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and business-to-business engagements to attract diversified investment into Africa.

• South Africa's economic ties with the BRICS are characterized by a heavy reliance on China, volatile trade flows, and a persistent trade deficit with all bloc members.
• The trade profile between South Africa and BRICS is not conducive to domestic industrialization, as exports are primarily raw materials while imports are manufactured goods, contrasting with trade with the US and EU.
• Direct investment from BRICS into South Africa remains marginal, representing less than 4% of total foreign direct investment as of 2021, with European and US partners dominating.
• The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and its Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) offer BRICS businesses opportunities to supply intermediate inputs and invest in domestic African production to benefit from duty-free trade.
• Geopolitical rivalry between the West and China, leading to 're-shoring', 'near-shoring', and 'friend-shoring', as well as increased scrutiny of Chinese investments in Europe, creates a vacuum that BRICS and African markets can fill.
• Expanding BRICS membership could increase the bloc's global influence and economic cooperation, though it faces challenges regarding consensus on eligibility and potential geopolitical antagonism from Western powers.
• The BRICS are pursuing a more resilient global financial architecture to reduce reliance on the US dollar, including the proposal for a basket-based reserve currency comprising the real, rouble, rupee, renminbi, and rand.

APA

Prinsloo, C. (2023). Geopolitical Turmoil: BRICS Economic Windfall? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/SAIIA_PI-142_GeopoliticalTurmoilBRICS.pdf

Chicago

Prinsloo, Cyril. Geopolitical Turmoil: BRICS Economic Windfall? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/SAIIA_PI-142_GeopoliticalTurmoilBRICS.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Prinsloo |first1=Cyril |title=Geopolitical Turmoil: BRICS Economic Windfall? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=April 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/SAIIA_PI-142_GeopoliticalTurmoilBRICS.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{prinsloo2023geopolitical, author = {Prinsloo, Cyril}, title = {{Geopolitical Turmoil: BRICS Economic Windfall?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/SAIIA_PI-142_GeopoliticalTurmoilBRICS.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }