South Africa’s Post-COVID Climate Response and the Path to its NDC Goals

South Africa has increased its climate ambition by lowering its 2030 emission target upper limit from 614 Mt CO2-eq to 420 Mt CO2-eq. While the country leads Africa in green finance and has established a carbon tax, implementation of climate strategies remains slow. The COVID-19 pandemic initially diverted focus toward immediate socioeconomic needs, but later spurred the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan. Conversely, the Ukraine war has increased global demand for South African coal, potentially incentivizing a rollback of decarbonization. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) provides critical financial support, but the transition is hindered by ongoing power shortages, reliance on new coal plants like Medupi and Kusile, and political sensitivity regarding job losses in the coal sector.

• South Africa's updated 2021 NDC significantly increases its mitigation ambition, reducing the 2030 emission target upper limit from 614 Mt CO2-eq (set in the 2015 INDC) to 420 Mt CO2-eq, and tightening the overall target range to 70 Mt CO2-eq.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a short-term incentive to increase coal production and exports due to soaring prices and EU demand; South African coal exports to Europe increased eight-fold in the first half of 2022 compared to 2021.
• South Africa is a leader in African green finance, issuing over 70% of the continent's green bonds and introducing sustainability bonds on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.
• The Carbon Tax Act of 2019 is considered a major milestone, but its effectiveness is limited by prices that are significantly lower than those required to meet 2°C targets; effective prices can drop as low as ZAR 6/tCO2e when tax-free provisions are applied.
• The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) is a critical enabler, providing an initial $8.5 billion package, though the total cost to transform the energy sector over three decades is estimated at at least $250 billion.
• The commissioning of the Medupi and Kusile coal plants acts as a major impediment to NDC targets, as they are projected to emit approximately 50 million tons of carbon dioxide combined annually.
• There is a systemic gap between policy formulation and implementation; for example, the Climate Change Bill took over three and a half years to be introduced to Parliament after its first publication in 2018.

APA

Matola, J. U., & Connock, K. (n.d.). South Africa’s Post-COVID Climate Response and the Path to its NDC Goals. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRAPI_17_SAPostCovid.pdf

Chicago

Matola, Joseph Upile, and Kendra Connock. South Africa’s Post-COVID Climate Response and the Path to its NDC Goals. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRAPI_17_SAPostCovid.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Matola |first1=Joseph Upile |last2=Connock |first2=Kendra |title=South Africa’s Post-COVID Climate Response and the Path to its NDC Goals |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRAPI_17_SAPostCovid.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{matolandsouth, author = {Matola, Joseph Upile and Connock, Kendra}, title = {{South Africa’s Post-COVID Climate Response and the Path to its NDC Goals}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRAPI_17_SAPostCovid.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }