Bolsonaro and the BRICS: Bull in a china shop?

The document argues that while President Jair Bolsonaro's administration represents a shift toward neoliberal economics and a closer alignment with the United States, these changes are unlikely to cause a schism within the BRICS. It suggests that Brazil's national interests will continue to drive cooperation, particularly in trade, development finance, and global governance. The author recommends that the bloc leverage Brazil's presidency to address trade imbalances with China through partial scope agreements and align the New Development Bank's loans with national development agendas to ensure financial sustainability.

• President Jair Bolsonaro's administration is driven by a 'trifecta' consisting of religious and anti-globalist forces, the military, and neoliberal economists. This is reflected in a cabinet where, out of 22 members, seven are former military officers, three are 'staunch Christians', and four hold 'ultra-libertarian, pro-business values'.
• Brazil's foreign policy is shifting away from the South-South cooperation model of previous administrations toward a stronger alignment with the United States, emulating positions held by the Trump administration on issues such as the Paris Agreement and the Maduro regime in Venezuela.
• Despite a shift toward the US, Brazil's relationship with China remains pragmatically essential as China is Brazil's largest economic partner. The document notes that Economic Minister Paulo Guedes is unlikely to antagonize China due to Brazil's economic needs.
• To address trade imbalances within the BRICS—where China typically exports manufactured goods and imports primary commodities—the author proposes using Partial Scope Agreements (PSAs). These would allow for shared preferences on a limited number of goods or sectors, such as renewable energy, as a building block for broader agreements.
• The BRICS members have conflicting interests regarding the crisis in Venezuela. While Brazil's current administration is at odds with the Maduro regime, China and Russia are major creditors to Venezuela, with Chinese loans estimated at $60 billion and Russian loans at $17 billion.
• The New Development Bank (NDB) needs to better align its loan approvals with the national development agendas of its members to ensure financial sustainability. Currently, Brazil and South Africa have the lowest loan approval rates at 8% each, compared to China at 34% and India at 32%.

APA

Prinsloo, C. (2019). Bolsonaro and the BRICS: Bull in a china shop? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Policy-Briefing-180.pdf

Chicago

Prinsloo, Cyril. Bolsonaro and the BRICS: Bull in a china shop? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2019. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Policy-Briefing-180.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Prinsloo |first1=Cyril |title=Bolsonaro and the BRICS: Bull in a china shop? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=March 2019 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Policy-Briefing-180.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{prinsloo2019bolsonaro, author = {Prinsloo, Cyril}, title = {{Bolsonaro and the BRICS: Bull in a china shop?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2019}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Policy-Briefing-180.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }