Fossil Fuels are Dead, Long Live Fossil Fuels

Botswana faces a critical need to diversify its economy due to expected declines in diamond revenues. The report evaluates the viability of exporting coal via the proposed Trans-Kalahari Railway (TKR) and extracting iron ore near the Okavango Delta. It concludes that raw coal exports are risky due to high infrastructure costs and a narrowing global demand window. Instead, it recommends using coal and iron ore for domestic beneficiation to create a regional steel industry in Selebi-Phikwe and prioritising eco-tourism as a sustainable primary revenue generator.

• Botswana's economy remains heavily dependent on diamonds, which accounted for 82.6% of total exports in 2013 and 85% of the country's import purchasing power.
• The proposed Trans-Kalahari Railway (TKR) to Walvis Bay faces significant economic risks, with potential capital and operational costs of $38 billion over 30 years, which may result in a 'white elephant' if the global coal export window closes.
• Exporting coal to India is identified as the most viable external market because India has an authentic internal supply shortfall, producing 228.8 million tonnes against a consumption of 324.3 million tonnes in 2013.
• Coal mining in Botswana is constrained by severe water scarcity; a countrywide export industry of 72 Mt/a would require between 3.2 and 32.8 million cubic metres of water per year, necessitating pipelines from the Zambezi River.
• Botswana possesses a significant 'greenfield' iron ore deposit in Block 1 near Shakawe, with an inferred mineral resource of 441 Mt grading 29.4% Fe, though its proximity to the Okavango Delta UNESCO World Heritage Site poses environmental risks.
• Rather than raw exports, the report suggests beneficiating iron ore and coal locally to produce pig iron or 'Supascrap' to support a regional steel industry in Selebi-Phikwe, leveraging existing smelting infrastructure.
• Eco-tourism is recommended as the primary future revenue generator because its sustainability depends on the preservation of pristine wilderness, which is an increasingly valuable asset.
• The report argues that Botswana should use remaining diamond rents to invest in human and physical capital and explore renewable energy, specifically solar power, given the country's abundance of sunshine.

APA

Harvey, R. (2015). Fossil Fuels are Dead, Long Live Fossil Fuels. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fossil-Fuels-Dead-Long-Live-Fossil-Fuels-Botswanas-options-economic-diversification.pdf

Chicago

Harvey, Ross. Fossil Fuels are Dead, Long Live Fossil Fuels. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2015. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fossil-Fuels-Dead-Long-Live-Fossil-Fuels-Botswanas-options-economic-diversification.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Harvey |first1=Ross |title=Fossil Fuels are Dead, Long Live Fossil Fuels |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=August 2015 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fossil-Fuels-Dead-Long-Live-Fossil-Fuels-Botswanas-options-economic-diversification.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{harvey2015fossil, author = {Harvey, Ross}, title = {{Fossil Fuels are Dead, Long Live Fossil Fuels}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2015}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Fossil-Fuels-Dead-Long-Live-Fossil-Fuels-Botswanas-options-economic-diversification.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }