COP26: Much Achieved, Huge Opportunities Missed

The document provides a multi-expert critique of COP26, noting that while the summit completed the Paris Agreement rule book and secured net zero commitments for 90% of the world, it failed to secure a 'grand bargain' for coal with India or a loss and damage fund. It highlights the $8.5 billion just transition deal for South Africa as a potential model but warns that developed nations have failed to meet the $100 billion annual finance goal. Experts argue that the summit ignored the critical role of oceans in carbon absorption and failed to address the resource-intensive economic systems driving global warming.

• COP26 achieved several milestones, including the completion of the Paris Agreement's rule book, securing net zero commitments covering 90 percent of the world, and strengthening the 1.5°C target. It also resulted in a UN first by including language on reducing coal use.
• The outcome regarding Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) was mixed; while India, Thailand, and Vietnam made substantial moves, other major emitters like China and Russia only tweaked their 2030 targets, and Brazil and Mexico weakened theirs.
• A significant failure of COP26 was the inability to reach a 'grand bargain' with India on coal. The presidency's focus on abolishing coal on a Western timeline without providing affordable clean energy alternatives cornered India, which relies on coal for 70 percent of its electricity.
• Developed countries failed to meet their 2020 goal of providing $100 billion in climate finance to developing countries and resisted the creation of an international funding mechanism for loss and damage.
• The $8.5 billion deal between South Africa and a group of developed nations (US, EU, France, Germany, and UK) is cited as a potential model for 'just transition transactions' to help coal-dependent economies transition without exacerbating poverty and unemployment.
• African countries possess a strategic opportunity to leverage their mineral resources for green technology, as 42 of the 63 elements used in low-carbon technologies are found in Africa.
• The summit largely ignored the ocean's role as the world's largest bioreactor and its capacity to absorb carbon. Experts argue that protecting marine ecosystems and restoring mangroves and seagrass beds could absorb more carbon than land-based stimulus packages.
• The 1.5°C target is unlikely to be met unless the global economic system is addressed, specifically the 'resource-intensive consumerism' and 'perverse subsidies' that favor unsustainable production and consumption patterns.

APA

Betts, P., Powell, L., & Kraemer, R. A. (2021). COP26: Much Achieved, Huge Opportunities Missed. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/research/cop26-much-achieved-huge-opportunities-missed/

Chicago

Betts, Peter, Lydia Powell, and R. Andreas Kraemer. COP26: Much Achieved, Huge Opportunities Missed. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/research/cop26-much-achieved-huge-opportunities-missed/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Betts |first1=Peter |last2=Powell |first2=Lydia |last3=Kraemer |first3=R. Andreas |title=COP26: Much Achieved, Huge Opportunities Missed |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=23 November 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/cop26-much-achieved-huge-opportunities-missed/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{betts2021cop26, author = {Betts, Peter and Powell, Lydia and Kraemer, R. Andreas}, title = {{COP26: Much Achieved, Huge Opportunities Missed}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/cop26-much-achieved-huge-opportunities-missed/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }