Macroeconomic Resilience: The Cases of Senegal and Mali

This policy brief compares the macroeconomic resilience of Senegal and Mali between 2000 and 2022, analyzing their responses to various domestic and global shocks. It finds that while both countries utilized fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate impacts, Mali experienced more frequent internal shocks due to security and climatic vulnerabilities. The authors propose a transition toward counter-cyclical policies and structural reforms in trade, industry, human capital, and governance to build long-term resilience.

• Mali has been more susceptible to internal shocks than Senegal, primarily because of its vulnerability to security issues and climate-related crises.
• Both Senegal and Mali have consistently operated with structural budget deficits and a reliance on debt to finance crisis responses since 2000. Debt servicing costs spiked significantly during specific crises: Senegal saw increases of over 40% in 2008 and 140% in 2011, while Mali's debt servicing rose by 66% during the 2011 food crisis.
• Senegal demonstrated greater resilience in mobilizing domestic resources compared to Mali. Mali's tax and non-tax revenues suffered significant drops in 2006, 2013, and 2018 due to pastoral, food, and security crises, and again in 2022 due to ECOWAS sanctions and inflation-containment measures.
• Monetary policies in both nations were adapted by the Central Bank of West African States to balance economic support with price stability. Expansionary policies were used during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, while restrictive policies were implemented during food crises (2007, 2009, 2011) and the Ukrainian crisis to combat inflation.
• The authors recommend that Senegal and Mali adopt counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize their economies. This includes implementing fair tax systems that reduce burdens on vulnerable groups during crises and utilizing monetary policies that provide credit and encourage investment during economic slowdowns.
• Structural improvements in human capital are identified as critical for resilience. While education expenditure is relatively high (15% of the budget in Senegal and 14% in Mali), health sector allocation is significantly lower, particularly in Mali at 0.77%. Senegal's 2013 Strategic Plan for Universal Health Coverage failed to meet its 2017 target, achieving a 48.31% coverage rate against a 76% goal.
• To bolster trade and industry, the report suggests diversifying production and reducing dependence on limited markets. It notes that research and development spending is very low in both countries, representing 0.58% of GDP for Senegal (2015) and 0.18% for Mali (2021).

APA

Ndiaye, D., & Diallo, D. (n.d.). Macroeconomic Resilience: The Cases of Senegal and Mali. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_28_MacroeconResilienceMaliSenegal.pdf

Chicago

Ndiaye, Daouda, and Djibril Diallo. Macroeconomic Resilience: The Cases of Senegal and Mali. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_28_MacroeconResilienceMaliSenegal.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ndiaye |first1=Daouda |last2=Diallo |first2=Djibril |title=Macroeconomic Resilience: The Cases of Senegal and Mali |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_28_MacroeconResilienceMaliSenegal.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ndiayendmacroeconomic, author = {Ndiaye, Daouda and Diallo, Djibril}, title = {{Macroeconomic Resilience: The Cases of Senegal and Mali}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_28_MacroeconResilienceMaliSenegal.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }