Is Uganda Ready for Oil Revenues?

This policy briefing evaluates Uganda's preparedness for managing oil revenues following the discovery of approximately 2.5 billion barrels of oil. The author argues that while there are high expectations for economic prosperity, Uganda lacks the necessary legal, institutional, and transparency frameworks to avoid the 'resource curse'. The document highlights gaps in the Petroleum Bill of 2010, restrictions on access to information, and the failure to establish institutions mandated by the 2008 Oil and Gas Policy.

• Uganda possesses approximately 2.5 billion barrels of oil and plans to construct a $4.6 billion oil refinery in the Hoima district (specifically Kabale-Buseruka), with construction slated to begin in 2012 and commissioning in 2015. By 2018, oil production is projected to reach 350,000 barrels, potentially increasing per capita oil income by $75–$100 annually.
• The legal framework for managing oil revenues is insufficient. While the Oil and Gas Policy of 2008 committed to creating a law for the management of revenues and establishing an institutional framework, no such comprehensive law or institutions have been implemented as of February 2011. Additionally, the government has shown no willingness to join the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).
• The Petroleum Exploration, Development, Production and Value Addition Bill of 2010 contains several weaknesses: it lacks minimum levels for royalties, tax payments, and production shares (leaving them to be decided on a licence-by-licence basis), and it does not include progressive revenue collection to capture higher rents during price booms. Furthermore, it proposes a revenue share of 85% for the central government and 15% for regional and local governments without providing a rationale.
• Access to information regarding oil operations is severely restricted. The Petroleum Exploration and Production Act of 1985 makes it an offence to disclose licensee information without consent, punishable by fines or imprisonment. While the 1995 Constitution and the Access to Information Act of 2005 grant general rights to information, these are limited by vague clauses regarding 'security or sovereignty' and 'commercial disadvantage'.
• Media freedom in Uganda is under threat, which hinders public accountability. A proposed amendment to the Ugandan Press and Journalist Act of 1995 would allow the Media Council to deny licences based on 'national security, stability, or unity'. The author notes that the government has already closed some radio stations without hearings.
• The institutional capacity to manage oil is lacking. Many bodies proposed in the 2008 Oil and Gas Policy—including the Petroleum Authority of Uganda and the National Oil Company (NATOIL)—have not been streamlined or fully established. There are concerns regarding the independence of these bodies from political interference, citing presidential directives and past invasions of the Court of Uganda by state agents.

APA

Tumusiime, F. (2011). Is Uganda Ready for Oil Revenues? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Policy-Briefing-28.pdf

Chicago

Tumusiime, Francis. Is Uganda Ready for Oil Revenues? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2011. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Policy-Briefing-28.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tumusiime |first1=Francis |title=Is Uganda Ready for Oil Revenues? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=28 February 2011 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Policy-Briefing-28.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tumusiime2011uganda, author = {Tumusiime, Francis}, title = {{Is Uganda Ready for Oil Revenues?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2011}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Policy-Briefing-28.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }