Dreaming Out Loud: Implications of a Doha End-Game for South Africa

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) analyzes the potential implications for South Africa if the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Doha Development Agenda (DDA) were to reach a conclusion. It examines the political economy of the negotiations, focusing on the 'market access agenda' across three core areas: agriculture, non-agricultural market access (NAMA), and services. The authors argue that because the 'exchange rate' between NAMA and agriculture favors developed nations, South Africa's best strategy for a successful outcome would be to preserve its NAMA carve-out and seek greater agricultural liberalisation from developed countries, while offering more concessions in the services sector, specifically in telecommunications, transport, and energy.

• The Doha Round negotiations are stalled due to a lack of political will among major players and a failure to reach agreement in the three key areas of agriculture, non-agricultural market access (NAMA), and services.
• The 'NAMA-Agriculture exchange rate' is viewed as unfairly weighted in favor of developed countries, as the US and EU seek to maintain agricultural subsidies while demanding that developing countries liberalise industrial tariffs.
• South Africa's government, business (BUSA), and labour (COSATU) generally agree that any concessions on industrial tariffs or services must be reciprocated by developed countries through the reduction and elimination of trade-distorting agricultural subsidies.
• South Africa has an 'offensive interest' in agricultural negotiations, meaning it would benefit significantly if developed OECD countries eliminated support for their own agricultural producers.
• South Africa strongly resists industrial tariff liberalisation in NAMA negotiations to protect its 'policy space' and support a state-driven industrial policy, as trade liberalisation in the 1990s is perceived to have worsened unemployment and poverty.
• South Africa has lobbied for a special 'carve-out' in NAMA negotiations for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) to prevent member states like Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, and Swaziland from losing tariff revenue.
• While South Africa's services sector is relatively open, the government and labour (COSATU) maintain a defensive stance to protect policy space, particularly regarding public services and the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
• The authors suggest that South Africa should offer greater market access in the services sector—specifically in telecommunications, transport, and energy—to catalyze competition and efficiency, as a trade-off to preserve its NAMA carve-out.
• The 'Swiss formula' used for NAMA tariff cuts is criticized by developing countries for imposing a greater reduction burden on them than on developed countries.
• The authors conclude that the most likely outcome for the Doha Round is a combination of keeping it on 'life support' and pursuing a 'late harvest' plan B package, as the necessary political leadership is unlikely to come from developed countries.

APA

Draper, P., & Dube, M. (2011). Dreaming Out Loud: Implications of a Doha End-Game for South Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Occasional-Paper-100.pdf

Chicago

Draper, Peter, and Memory Dube. Dreaming Out Loud: Implications of a Doha End-Game for South Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2011. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Occasional-Paper-100.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Draper |first1=Peter |last2=Dube |first2=Memory |title=Dreaming Out Loud: Implications of a Doha End-Game for South Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=November 2011 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Occasional-Paper-100.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{draper2011dreaming, author = {Draper, Peter and Dube, Memory}, title = {{Dreaming Out Loud: Implications of a Doha End-Game for South Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2011}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Occasional-Paper-100.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }