Exploring the potential role of the IMF in supporting South Africa’s just transition

This report by the South African Institute of International Affairs, commissioned by Oxfam South Africa, examines the potential role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in supporting South Africa's transition to cleaner energy. It discusses the IMF's integration of climate risks into its global financial stability mandate and the specific macroeconomic challenges facing South Africa, while cautioning against the IMF's historical policy orthodoxies.

• The IMF has integrated climate change into its work because physical, transition, and spillover risks from moving away from fossil fuels impact governments' macroeconomic fundamentals. This is reflected in the 2021 publication of the Comprehensive Surveillance Review on Integrating Climate Change into Article IV consultations.
• South Africa faces significant transition risks due to being one of the top 20 global fossil fuel emitters, having the highest Gini coefficient of inequality, and managing Eskom's coal footprint and debt of approximately ZAR 400 billion ($26 billion). A just transition for workers, communities, and vulnerable groups will be costly in the medium term and requires international support.
• The report recommends that the IMF develop clear guidelines on appropriate engagement, adhere to a 'do no harm' principle, and avoid 'mission creep' by recognizing the mandates of other international organizations on issues like labour. It suggests the IMF needs operational guidelines for staff to mainstream just transition considerations in Article IV consultations and technical assistance, involving civil society and various government departments beyond the finance ministry.
• The report argues that the connection between climate change, macroeconomic stability, and just transitions requires the IMF to seriously reappraise its traditional policy toolkit of orthodox economics and fiscal austerity.
• To succeed, the just transition requires greater transparency and openness from both the IMF and governments regarding the substance and process of decision-making, moving away from the preference for confidentiality.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2022). Exploring the potential role of the IMF in supporting South Africa’s just transition. https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-the-potential-role-of-the-imf-in-supporting-south-africas-just-transition/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Exploring the potential role of the IMF in supporting South Africa’s just transition. 2022. https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-the-potential-role-of-the-imf-in-supporting-south-africas-just-transition/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Exploring the potential role of the IMF in supporting South Africa’s just transition |date=28 February 2022 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-the-potential-role-of-the-imf-in-supporting-south-africas-just-transition/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2022exploring, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Exploring the potential role of the IMF in supporting South Africa’s just transition}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2022}, month = feb, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/exploring-the-potential-role-of-the-imf-in-supporting-south-africas-just-transition/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }