100 seconds to midnight: what could be done to bolster nuclear disarmament globally?

This policy briefing examines the current state of global nuclear disarmament, framed by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock being set to 100 seconds to midnight in January 2020. It analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diplomatic processes, the success of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (Ban Treaty), and the role of non-state actors and small nations in driving a 'humanitarian turn' in disarmament diplomacy.

• Global nuclear arsenals remain substantial despite reduction efforts; at the start of 2020, the estimated arsenal for nine nuclear-armed states was 13,400, a slight decrease from 13,865 in 2019.
• The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted key nuclear diplomacy events, including the postponement of the 2020 NPT Review Conference in New York and the Conference of Parties of the Pelindaba Treaty in Africa, though it did not stop the nuclear ambitions of North Korea.
• The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (Ban Treaty) entered into force on 22 January 2021, following the ratification of 50 states on 23 October 2020.
• The success of the Ban Treaty is attributed to a 'humanitarian turn' that reframed nuclear weapons as a humanitarian disaster rather than a national security issue, driven by small- to middle-power states and civil society rather than superpowers.
• Ten states remain outside the legal and normative framework of the Ban Treaty: the five NPT-recognized nuclear weapons states (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US), three non-signatories to the NPT (Israel, India, and Pakistan), North Korea, and Iran.
• The document argues that the next phase of disarmament must focus on 'norm internalisation' and universalisation, requiring engagement with 'nuclear norm ‘antipreneurs’' (the 10 non-signatory states) and the integration of political psychology to understand state behavior.
• The author suggests that Africa, as the largest UN bloc, has a unique opportunity to achieve universal ratification of the Ban Treaty across the continent.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2021). 100 seconds to midnight: what could be done to bolster nuclear disarmament globally? https://saiia.org.za/research/100-seconds-to-midnight-what-could-be-done-to-bolster-nuclear-disarmament-globally/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. 100 seconds to midnight: what could be done to bolster nuclear disarmament globally? 2021. https://saiia.org.za/research/100-seconds-to-midnight-what-could-be-done-to-bolster-nuclear-disarmament-globally/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=100 seconds to midnight: what could be done to bolster nuclear disarmament globally? |date=7 June 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/100-seconds-to-midnight-what-could-be-done-to-bolster-nuclear-disarmament-globally/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2021100, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{100 seconds to midnight: what could be done to bolster nuclear disarmament globally?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/100-seconds-to-midnight-what-could-be-done-to-bolster-nuclear-disarmament-globally/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }