Profitably Decarbonizing Heavy Transport and Industrial Heat

The document challenges the notion that heavy transport and industrial heat are 'hard-to-abate' sectors, suggesting that they can be decarbonized profitably. It emphasizes the role of plummeting renewable energy costs and the potential for massive efficiency gains in trucking, aviation, shipping, and the production of steel and cement. The author advocates for 'integrative design' and structural efficiency to drastically reduce the volume of materials needed, thereby lowering both costs and emissions.

• Renewable energy costs have fallen rapidly, with unsubsidized solar power bids in Saudi Arabia reaching $10.4/MWh in April 2021. New unsubsidized renewables with battery storage were cheaper to build and run than operating 39% of the world's coal plants in 2020, and are expected to exceed 73% by 2025.
• Heavy road transport, particularly Class 8 trucks, can achieve significant efficiency gains. Tesla's 2021 Semi battery-electric truck offers over 17 mpge, compared to an average of approximately 6 mpg for diesel trucks. Logistical and modal shifts, such as moving freight to rail and barges, could reduce global heavy transport CO2 by up to 20%.
• Aviation can be decarbonized through electrification for short-hauls and liquid-green-hydrogen for long-hauls. The author notes that some existing jetliner designs are three to five times more efficient than the current fleet, and a 2020 prototype piston-engine business plane is reportedly eight times more efficient than a business jet.
• Marine shipping is transitioning toward carbon-neutral fuels, with Maersk planning to launch the first carbon-neutral container vessel in 2023 and targeting a 100% reduction in carbon intensity by 2050.
• Industrial heat can be decarbonized using renewable electricity via heat pumps, infrared, microwaves, plasmas, or hydrogen. Solar-heated air systems have demonstrated temperatures of 9001,000C, and a pilot plant for cement is targeting over 1,500C.
• Steel production can be decarbonized through hydrogen-based CO2-free primary steelmaking. Such mills could achieve a fully loaded cost of $400/t if renewable electricity is available at 2.5/kWh.
• Cement emissions can be reduced by optimizing concrete mixes, using substituents like fly-ash and slag, or adopting novel chemistries. Some low-calcium cements can save 5070% of CO2 for nonreinforced precast products.
• Structural efficiency in buildings can drastically reduce material use. Substituting tension for compression structures can use 8090% fewer tons of material, and fabric-form concrete can save over 50% of concrete in beams and sheets.
• The '3for2' design for buildings can reduce height by one-third for the same floor space, saving more than 15% of structural core mass and approximately 77% of energy in high-rise buildings.
• Existing energy infrastructure represents a massive amount of committed emissions. Planned lifetime use of $22 trillion worth of 2018 global infrastructure would emit 658 billion metric tons of CO2.

APA

Lovins, A. B. (2021). Profitably Decarbonizing Heavy Transport and Industrial Heat. RMI. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/07/rmi_profitable_decarb.pdf

Chicago

Lovins, Amory B. Profitably Decarbonizing Heavy Transport and Industrial Heat. RMI, 2021. https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/07/rmi_profitable_decarb.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lovins |first1=Amory B. |title=Profitably Decarbonizing Heavy Transport and Industrial Heat |publisher=RMI |date=July 2021 |url=https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/07/rmi_profitable_decarb.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lovins2021profitably, author = {Lovins, Amory B.}, title = {{Profitably Decarbonizing Heavy Transport and Industrial Heat}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2021}, month = jul, url = {https://rmi.org/app/uploads/2021/07/rmi_profitable_decarb.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }