Reality Check: The Missing Pieces of New York’s “Climate Math” Debate

The briefing examines the debate over New York's transition to a 20-year global warming potential (GWP20) timeframe and the inclusion of upstream and biogenic emissions. It argues that this accounting method increases the avoided temperature rise by 66% compared to old methods and could avoid up to $240 billion in damages. The author contends that changing the accounting timeframe does not increase physical emissions and that affordability can be maintained through strategic policy design and federal funding.

• New York's updated emissions accounting includes three primary changes: the inclusion of out-of-state upstream emissions from imported energy and exported waste, the counting of biogenic gross emissions from plant-based fuels, and the adoption of a 20-year global warming potential (GWP20) timeframe for comparing pollutants.
• Using the new accounting method would improve benefits in terms of avoided temperature rise by 66% compared to the old accounting based on the June 2020 decarbonization study, with the most significant difference stemming from the inclusion of upstream emissions.
• The new accounting method is estimated to avoid as much as $240 billion in damages, while meeting New York's targets overall could result in at least $115 billion in net benefits for climate and health.
• The author argues that the shift to a 20-year GWP timeframe does not increase physical emissions or necessarily increase costs, as the timeframe only changes how pollutants are expressed in tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
• Affordability of climate action in New York could be improved through the design of the cap-and-invest program, the proposed NY HEAT legislation, and Inflation Reduction Act funding, which could reduce costs by up to 19%.

APA

RMI (2023). Reality Check: The Missing Pieces of New York’s “Climate Math” Debate. https://rmi.org/resources/reality-check-the-missing-pieces-of-new-yorks-climate-math-debate/

Chicago

RMI. Reality Check: The Missing Pieces of New York’s “Climate Math” Debate. 2023. https://rmi.org/resources/reality-check-the-missing-pieces-of-new-yorks-climate-math-debate/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=RMI |title=Reality Check: The Missing Pieces of New York’s “Climate Math” Debate |date=22 June 2023 |url=https://rmi.org/resources/reality-check-the-missing-pieces-of-new-yorks-climate-math-debate/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rmi2023reality, author = {{RMI}}, title = {{Reality Check: The Missing Pieces of New York’s “Climate Math” Debate}}, institution = {RMI}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://rmi.org/resources/reality-check-the-missing-pieces-of-new-yorks-climate-math-debate/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }